TX 19th poll update

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Apr 28, 2004 at 12:28:38 PM EDT

There are 5 competitive seats in Texas, where incumbent Democrats are slight underdogs against the demographics and district makeup forces. The 19th, one of two of the Texas contests that pits incumbents against eachother, is probably the toughest of the five, so this comes as a bit of good news for the Dems:

TX 19 Stenholm (D) 48% Neugebauer (R) 44% Undec. 8

The poll, done by the Democratic firm Decision Research was conducted 4/5-8 for Rep. Charlie Stenholm (D-17); surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent. This would be a tough district for any Dem to win, Odessa, Midland, Lubbock, whew:

(click on image to enlarge map)

In the Presidential matchup for Texas, Bush is beating the snot out of Kerry, by a 67-28 percent margin. By way of contrast, poll done 3/29 - 4/5 by the University of Massachusetts, found Kerry leading Bush by a 54-32 percent margin.

On the race in the 6th CD, Atrios has a guest post from Morris Meyer. It's a longshot, but the guy has embraced the blogs; and we give back.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

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Old map

Jerome,

You're displaying the old CD19 in your map. One of the things Tom Craddick insisted on last year was a separate district for Midland - that's the new CD11, which will be won by Bush crony Mike Conway.

You can find the old and new maps here. It's still very strongly red, so if this poll is accurate, it's great news for Stenholm. There was a much earlier poll which had shown Neugebauer up by something like 47-39.

by kuff 2004-04-28 02:07PM | 0 recs

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Here's the earlier poll

link

The number was 49-38 Neugebauer in February. I don't offhand know if this was a partisan poll.

by kuff 2004-04-28 02:12PM | 0 recs

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yea, that's right

This is the old map, some changes have been made. There was an earlier partisan poll done by POS, showing Neugebauer up 47-38 over Stenholm, so it's likely about tied. There was something written up by NJ a few days ago that got me to liking the fellow Swede:

Rep. Charles Stenholm (D) has always tried "to foster bipartisanship" in
the House, but while he has reached out "to GOP colleagues," the
"Republican party has never stopped trying to knock him off." The
moderate Dem. is facing yet another challenge from the GOP this year, who
believe they have "their best chance yet" to "oust Stenholm." The "recent
redistricting by Texas' Legislature" has placed Stenholm in a face-off
with freshman Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R) "in a redrawn district that
contains even more Republican territory than it has in the past."
Stenholm: "This time around, they decided that they couldn't beat me at
the ballot box, so they changed the lines." He "places the blame squarely
on the shoulders of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R)," both for "the
redistricting effort" and "a lack of comity in the House." "Stenholm said
he remains confident about the race," but knows he is in for a fight. He
and "five other Texas Democrats are launching a joint fund-raising effort
to help their campaigns." Stenholm "admitted he has though about chucking
it all and going back to Texas." But the GOP "got on the fighting side of
this Swede this time. To walk away and let them win without a fight -- I
couldn't live with myself" (Baumann, National Journal, 4/22).

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-04-28 02:41PM | 0 recs

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state-wide poll?

are those tough Bush-Kerry numbers actually state-wide? Since the poll was for Stenholm, I'm hoping that's just this district. If so, then comparing it to the UMass poll might not work. If it is, then....EGAD! 67-28!

by DonBinTN 2004-04-28 03:29PM | 0 recs