Nowhere to go but up

by Chris Bowers, Tue Nov 09, 2004 at 10:15:26 AM EST

Things are not good for us right now at pretty much any level of government except state legislatures. In the Senate, governorships and the Presidency, things can even get much worse. Fortunately, in the House, that does not appear to be the case. From today's Hotline, subscription only, here are the House races where the incumbent won with less than 55% of the vote:

Total Precincts
Race Candidate Votes %age Reporting
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CA 26 DREIER (R) 116,218 54% 100%
Matthews (D) 92,665 43
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CO 04 MUSGRAVE (R) 144,325 52% 82%
Matsunaka (D) 124,491 44
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CO 07 BEAUPREZ (R) 114,969 55% 100%
Thomas (D) 88,713 43
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CT 02 SIMMONS (R) 165,558 54% 100%
Sullivan (D) 139,987 46
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CT 04 SHAYS (R) 149,891 52% 100%
Farrell (D) 136,481 48
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IN 02 CHOCOLA (R) 140,426 52% 100%
Donnelly (D) 115,470 45
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IN 07 CARSON (D) 121,086 54% 100%
Horning (R) 97,319 44
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IN 08 HOSTETTLER (R) 145,761 53% 100%
Jennings (D) 121,678 45
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KS 03 MOORE (D) 177,525 55% 100%
Kobach (R) 141,302 44
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MN 06 KENNEDY (R) 205,586 54% 100%
Wetterling (D) 174,828 46
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NM 01 WILSON (R) 141,240 55% 100%
Romero (D) 116,821 45
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NV 03 PORTER (R) 161,176 54% 100%
Gallagher (D) 119,564 40
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NC 11 TAYLOR (R) 157,012 55% 100%
Keever (D) 129,462 45
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OR 05 HOOLEY (D) 172,802 53% 100%
Zupancic (R) 144,439 44
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PA 06 GERLACH (R) 156,763 51% 100%
Murphy (D) 150,741 49
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SD AL HERSETH (D) 207,910 53% 100%
Diedrich (R) 178,801 46
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TN 04 DAVIS (D) 138,398 55% 99%
Bowling (R) 109,912 44
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TX 17 EDWARDS (D) 125,220 51% 100%
Wohlgemuth (R) 116,131 47
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Out of eighteen of the closest twelve races that featured incumbents, Republicans won twelve. Although I am not really close to finishing my analysis of the slightly less close races, those also seem to have more Republican victors than Democrats. For example, here are the congressional leaders who did not do much better:

Race Candidate Votes %age Reporting
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IL 06 HYDE (R) 131,229 55.5% 100%
Cegelis (D) 105,205 44.5
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MO 03 Carnahan (D) 146,751 52.9% 100%
Federer (R) 125,012 45.1
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TX 22 DELAY (R) 149,901 55.1% 100%
Morrison (D) 111,741 41.1
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Carnahan is featured because he was taking Gephardt's old seat. It is very sweet to see Hyde and DeLay so vulnerable.

We were beaten, but in the House at least it would appear that we have nowhere to go but up. The same could not be said after 2002, both because both Texas redistricting and because in that cycle, more Democrats won close races than Republicans.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

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DREIR MAY BE A GOP VP NOMINEE IN '08.

I am from California and Dreir was instrumental in the underhanded ousting of Gray Davis and the "election" of Celebrity Schwarzeneger. He's a die hard Republican - with his shiny face and perfectly sprayed hair. I think he may be a contender for VP in '08.

by elscal 2004-11-09 10:28AM | 0 recs

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Re: DREIR MAY BE A GOP VP NOMINEE IN '08.

Don't count on it. He is rumored to be gay (and practically outed by Michelangelo Signorile on Sirius Radio). Given that W and the Repubs want to write gays out of the US Constitution, I do not see a high-level Repub future for this Congressman.

by KerryLandslide 2004-11-09 11:31AM | 0 recs

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Everybody knows he's gay

Not gonna happen. If it does, all we have to do is be Seinfield ("He's gay, not that there's anything wrong with that"), and the religious right will stay home in droves.

by Geotpf 2004-11-09 04:53PM | 0 recs

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Re: DREIR MAY BE A GOP VP NOMINEE IN '08.

The low showing by Dreier is due to one cause only: Political Human Sacrifice. See also this and the results.

Summary: two SoCal talk jocks (John & Ken @ KFI) encouraged their listeners to vote against Dreier due to his support for illegal immigration. Many Republicans just couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, and no doubt the uptick in L votes was because Republicans wanted to vote against Dreier but couldn't vote Democrat.

On a somewhat related note, see Why Kerry won, where I discuss the issues he focused on that lead to his landslide.

by TheLonewackoBlog 2004-11-09 06:19PM | 0 recs

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Cynthia Matthews

Also, Dreier's opponent apparently got little or no money from the Dem party. Perhaps it was because she came out against illegal immigration, or perhaps it was because there's a bit of a gentleman's agreement involved not to unseat people like Dreier.

by TheLonewackoBlog 2004-11-09 06:23PM | 0 recs

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Don't Count On It

by KerryLandslide 2004-11-09 11:31AM | 0 recs

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Nowhere to go but up?

Yes, "regression to the mean" would seem to predict a better House result in '06. But every time the Dems have thought they've hit bottom, they've dropped a little further.

We're now faced with the most hostile Congress in my lifetime. It appears the Senate now has the votes to "nuke" the Dem. filibuster, even if we can hold our diminished numbers together for one.

We may be able to claw back a Senate seat in '06. Rick Santorum is not Arlen Specter; he's well outside the mainstream in Penn. But the depressing result we're currently faced with will likely lead to further Dem. retirements, which we'll be poorly equipped to defend in the South.

Even if a clever ticket retakes the Presidency in '08, I don't see anything turning this country around short of a Depression-caliber disaster.

by Mathwiz 2004-11-09 11:39AM | 0 recs

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Re: Nowhere to go but up?

That seems a bit over the top. Democrats had a bigger loss in '88 and '84. In Congress, Democrats had a bigger loss in '94. We will live to fight another day. Young voters are more democratic than republican, more liberal than conservative. Conservatives won with a mistaken notion of 'values' and rode the back of the politics of 9/11. That won't necessarily be the case in 06 or 08.

by j pratt 2004-11-09 11:54AM | 0 recs

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Red States

12 of these races took place in Red States, another good sign. These districts should be targeted in 06.

by j pratt 2004-11-09 11:41AM | 0 recs

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Georgia may be next

The Republicans from Georgia may try to take a page from the Tom DeLay playbook and redistrict now that they are in control in Georgia. (To be fair, the Democrats did some ugly redistricting last time around)

by JPhurst 2004-11-09 12:22PM | 0 recs

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target the weakly contested

there needs to be a look at6 other blue state repubs that didnt get serious challenges
There are 2 in iowa Nusles will be open he is running for gov
there are more in illinois and how about California and NJ

by smalltownilblue 2004-11-09 12:31PM | 0 recs

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Minnesota 6th District

Patti Wetterling's concession last week included a strong promise to run again in 2006. It is widely anticipated that in 2006 this will be an open seat, as Mark Kennedy is expected to run against Mark Dayton for the Senate. From what I can tell the thinking in the party is to repeat a Wetterling campaign in 2006.

Patti Wetterling has huge name recognition and very positive ID in her district. Some years ago, I think it was about 12, her son was kidnapped and never found -- and she became a national advocate regarding missing children, so much so that the advocacy groups did ads for her this time around. She has a foundation that specializes in services to families. I think she is very well suited to the district, and could win. She has no prior elective experience, and it showed early in her campaign this year but she was a fast learner. Her district is partly suburban, (North and East of the Twin Cities) and partly Rural -- tracks all the way to St. Cloud. It is fairly conservative, but it includes the core of Jesse Ventura's home base. Strong Swedish Luthern tradition in the east of the district, with the West much influenced by the Benedictines who have two colleges and much else at Collegeville near St. Cloud. Anyhow it is a district to keep your eye on -- good campaign and it would be doable.

And Hey -- John Ashcroft just resigned. I guess he just lost too many way out constitutional cases with a couple more in the last few days.

by Sara 2004-11-09 01:00PM | 0 recs

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Indianans Love Count Chocula

n/t

by PocketNines 2004-11-09 01:45PM | 0 recs

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CT-2 and CT-4

What a disappointment that we lost these two. I'll never understand ticket-splitting and I'll never understand the appeal that incumbents -- even ineffective backbench incumbents -- have for some people.

Well, at the very least, we'll be back in '06 in those two districts (and in CT-5 as well) to hammer away again. Simmons, Shays, and Johnson are enablers of the radical right's agenda, just by the very nature of their party designation, and that doesn't accord very well with CT values. We gained a couple of seats in both houses of the CT state legislature last week, and now have close to veto-proof majorities in both houses. This state really is turning a deeper shade of blue. But, alas, our hue is not any different at the Congressional level this year.

by leftish 2004-11-09 03:34PM | 0 recs

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Considering how strongly I am pro-Democrat...

...I vote against Democrats quite often (although I can't remember the last time I voted for a Republican-I think I never have in a race where a Democrat was also running-I think there have been low-level races where a Republican ran unopposed where I voted for him).

I voted against Barbara Boxer (she was always going to win anyways against Bill "I don't believe in TV ads" Jones, and ended up winning by 20 points, double what Kerry carried the state by) because of her co-sponsorship on Orrin Hatch's INDUCE Act. I voted for the Peace and Freedom canidate, who ended up getting 1.9%, so I wasn't the only leftie pissed off at her for one reason or another (the Libertarian got 1.7%, and the American Independent (IE Constitution) canidate got .6%, although no leftie would vote for the wingnut party, although the Libertarian, maybe).

I voted for the California recall, because Gray Davis was, is, and always will be, a total asshat. I voted for Bustamante to replace him, however.

I voted for NOBODY in the 2002 governor race, because Bill Simon was as much of a wingnut as anybody, and Gray Davis was, is, and always will be, a total asshat. Specifically, I wrote in Bill Maher (heh). I wanted Richard Riordan to win the Republican party so I could vote for him, but Davis was too smart-he ran attack ads against him during the primary, so the wingnut won. I considered voting for the Libertarian, but there was some minor controversy in which the Libertarian party disowned thier canidate for something retarded he said on a radio program, so I thought if the canidate was too nuts for the Libertrians, no way I was going to support him.

I voted against Gore in 2000, because of his retarded pick of censor-happy religious right DINO moron Lieberman for VP. Considering his wife is also censor-happy (remember her in the eighties with the record labels), I concluded that he had such tendencies as well. I voted for the Libertarian, Harry Browne (I would have held my nose and voted for Gore if my vote fucking mattered at all). Free speech is a pretty big issue with me, and the one reason I might have a problem if Feingold was to run for president next time, although his vote on the Patriot Act nearly cancels that out.

If a partisan like me ticket splits this often, imagine your average person. As for the power of incumbency-a lot of people on any race below governor or senator probably know NOTHING about the canidates running (this includes the US House), so they pick the incumbent by default.

by Geotpf 2004-11-09 05:16PM | 0 recs

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3CT and a MN

These are good targets Lets work on the list
Ironically the ticket splitting helped keep Dixicrats areound for years after the south was lost at the presidential level-seems to be repeating

by smalltownilblue 2004-11-09 04:37PM | 0 recs

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LA/NY House

Can someone explain why we aren't working to help the Democratic candidates in the Louisiana runoffs (LA-3 and LA-7)? Don't they need our help?

by bhelverson 2004-11-09 06:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: LA/NY House

I'll be up on that in less than two days. I really am sorry it has taken this long.

by Chris Bowers 2004-11-09 07:47PM | 0 recs

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Statehouse wins MATTER

The Religious Right's rise involved taking over state legislatures. And they took them over all right. If we're in anyway reversing that trend, it is an EXCELLENT sign for the future. Maybe not the near future, but the long-term future for sure. It means at a very grassroots, local level, Dems were organized enough and talked a talk that resonnated enough with folks that Dem candidates WON.

That is GREAT. It's not "President Kerry" as an outcome, but it DOES matter. A lot. (Those state legislatures draw Congressional district lines, remember!)

by IseFire 2004-11-09 06:45PM | 0 recs