Expanding the Map Into the Deep Blue
by Chris Bowers, Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 04:17:45 PM EST
- Of the fifty-one congressional districts in California that were contested by more than one candidate (one D and one R ran opposed even by third parties), Democrats won thirty-two seats and Republicans won nineteen.
- In the thirty-two Democratic districts, the total combined vote 70.47% for the Democratic candidates, and 26.13% for the Republican candidate, a margin of 44.34%.
- The thirty-two Democratic districts averaged 163,864 total votes cast for the House campaigns. The nineteen Republican districts averaged 194,589 total votes cast for the House campaigns. The margin between the two is 30,725 total votes.
- A 44.43% margin out of 30,725 votes is 13,624 votes. Had turnout in Democratic districts in California been equal to turnout in Republican districts, Kerry could have expected to increase his California margin over Bush by at least 13,624 votes per district.
- 13,624 multiplied by thirty-two is 435,970. Considering the undervote in congressional races, had turnout in Democratic districts in California been equal to turnout in Republican districts, Kerry would have closed the national popular vote gap by nearly half a million votes just in California alone.
Expand the map, and not just into safe and lean red states.









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