Early VNS exit polling

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 08:57:56 AM EST

Here is some of the early VNS data(correction, National Election Pool, not VNS), fwiw:

	 AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry	 45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush	 55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

Now, mind that these are early numbers. And even if correct, they reflect the ones most wanting to vote, and it's still a long way to go... but wow, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire & Minnesota voters can't wait to boot Bush!

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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VNS

Anyone have any information about VNS?

by bstadil 2004-11-02 09:02AM | 0 recs

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How old are these VNS numbers?

Awesome site ..! How old are these VNS numbers ?

Thanks

by yhari 2004-11-02 09:04AM | 0 recs

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what does fwiw mean?

by 143590 2004-11-02 09:05AM | 0 recs

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Re: what does fwiw mean?

For What It's Worth

by ploeg 2004-11-02 09:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: what does fwiw mean?

while we're at it, what does

ROTMFL (sp?) and asdf mean?

I know OTOH is "on the other hand" and I just figured out that CW is "conventional wisdom"

by Ono 2004-11-02 09:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: what does fwiw mean?

ROTFL means 'Rolling On The Floor Laughing.'
ROTFLMAO means 'Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Arse Off.'
ROTMF means 'Rotting On The Morgue Floor' and is rarely used outside of conversations between zombies. ^_-
'asdf' isn't an acronym at all - look at your keyboard. It's the first four letters of the traditional home row, used to fill a space that requires an entry but for which the typist doesn't want to put any data.

by realnrh 2004-11-02 09:53AM | 0 recs

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Re: what does fwiw mean?

Rolling on the floor, laughing my ass off
asdf is not an abbreviation - its the home keys on the left side of your keyboard, in order.

you can find long lists of these abbreviations if you google for them. Others:

YMMV: your mileage may vary
IANAL: I am not a lawyer
TANSTAAFL: there ain't no such thing as a free lunch
GWBIACUBM: George W Bush is a coked-up bung monkey

by Silent E 2004-11-02 09:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: what does fwiw mean?

Its ROTFLMAO or LMAO means Rolling On The Floor Laughing My Ass Off.

SCLM - So-Called Liberal Media

Dumb Ass - Bush

I am not sure ASDF. I have not come across that one.

by yitbos96bb 2004-11-02 09:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: what does fwiw mean?

ROTFL is rolling on the floor laughing
ROTFLMAO is ROTFL my ass off
asdf is just something to type for a subject when you don't have anything to type for a subject.

-John.

by jrrl 2004-11-02 09:58AM | 0 recs

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Re: what does fwiw mean?

www.acronym-finder.com has answers to future questions as well--and a few annoying popups. But they're worth it for all the info I've learned. YMMV ;).

by Andrew S 2004-11-02 10:57AM | 0 recs

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Exit Polling

As I have no doubt it will mentioned in short time here, but exit polls have historically favored the Republicans as well.

by Mark J. Bowers 2004-11-02 09:06AM | 0 recs

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Dups

You've got dups of MI and WI.

by ploeg 2004-11-02 09:06AM | 0 recs

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do the FL numbers include the early voters?

Do the FL numbers include the early voters who voted before this morning? If so, then we're in for a decisive Kerry win tonight. And regarding Zogby, I always considered CO and VA the top 2 (AR and WV would be the other 2) takeaway possibilities besides NH, OH, and FL.

Also if GOP voters generally vote earlier in the day, I can't wait to see what OH and FL numbers look like later in the day!

by jsramek 2004-11-02 09:06AM | 0 recs

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TAKE WITH GRAIN OF SALT

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html

According to Mystery Pollster: raw numbers, unweighted, not to mention the change in electorate during the day, etc. Really. Read.

by Brian CB 2004-11-02 09:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: TAKE WITH GRAIN OF SALT

Yep, we learned very well about messing with raw intelligence...

by ploeg 2004-11-02 09:07AM | 0 recs

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Re: TAKE WITH GRAIN OF SALT

Hey, after the 2000-2004 incumbent, it's anice change to be messing with any sort of intelligence at all!<GRIN>

by BillCat 2004-11-02 10:09AM | 0 recs

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Zogby

www.zogby.com is warning of (possible) big surprises in "Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia." Now, excuse me for getting too excited, but if Virginia is a surprise in any sense of the word, then what are the odds that Florida or Pennsylvania are going to go to Bush?

by Christopher 2004-11-02 09:09AM | 0 recs

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Re: Zogby

Go to zogby.com. Very strange. He has several states shifting from his prediction last night. Now has it 252-252 with VA and PA up in the air. Gives OH, FL to Bush, CO, NM, all the rest of the battlegrounds to Kerry.

Strange. Very. You'd expect a pattern, but instead this seems like random shifting. My guess is that Zogby is having the same trouble with the state polls that he had last time.

by AmberChaos 2004-11-02 09:22AM | 0 recs

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Re: Zogby

Note that many of Zogby's state-level results come from his on-line surveys (which he has been posting for the Wall Street Journal).

This includes Arkansas, New Hampshire and Virginia.

Do we have any idea if these are going to prove accurate?

That's the key question.

by rapayn01 2004-11-02 09:53AM | 0 recs

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Re: Zogby

Coming from Virginia, I think many people don't understand how historically close it is. There is HUGE difference between northern VA and southern VA - the northern part is just as democratic as the rest of the northeastern states (we don't consider ourselves part of "the South"), whereas southern VA is full of hicks and farms.

Anyway, I'm going to school in California and I voted absentee in Virginia because I figured my vote would count more there. If they're reporting record absentee ballots, and Zogby says to expect a surprise there, then there's a chance I might feel like I'm actually part of this crazy democracy when this is all over.

by nevans 2004-11-02 11:15AM | 0 recs

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Re: Zogby

I have to take issue with the characterization of southern Virginia as full of hicks. I live in Southwestern Virginia, and I feel very confidant that my county is voting for Kerry. We voted for Mark Warner and Tim Kaine in 2001, as did about half the counties in southern Virginia. If Kerry takes Virginia, then he'll take a lot of the southern counties too.

by Matusleo 2004-11-02 11:37AM | 0 recs

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I thought VNS went out of business

by RandyMI 2004-11-02 09:13AM | 0 recs

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VNS=NEP

The VNS has been disbanded.
Long live the NEP.

by epistemology 2004-11-02 09:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: VNS=NEP

Yes, Comrade Bukharin.

by Robwaldeck 2004-11-02 10:48AM | 0 recs

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exit polls

Exit polls aren't worth much. Exit polls in the early afternoon are even more worthless. Unless you think Kerry is going to win PA by 20 or Bush is going to win AZ by 10, there's not much to read into this.

To me, the best news is what appears to be a huge turnout everywhere. This has got to help us. They're fired up, but not nearly as much as we are.

by alhill 2004-11-02 09:31AM | 0 recs

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Re: exit polls

Bush winning AZ by 10 wouldn't surprise me. I think it will be closer but it wouldn't surprise. Kerry by 20 I agree with you on, it will tighten up. However, the exit polls do tend to favor the GOP earlier in the day, so hopefully this is good news.

by yitbos96bb 2004-11-02 09:40AM | 0 recs

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WI

Adds to 95%, the others to 98% or more. Is this the impact of the Badnarik ads?

by benmasel 2004-11-02 09:49AM | 0 recs

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new mexico

Reports are lines are short and turnout weak (TNR). Verification? I was worried about NM as is, and with low turnout Kerry's toast.

by DPG 2004-11-02 09:51AM | 0 recs

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Re: new mexico

According to cnn, New Mexico is going to have record turnout.

there's a story at cnn.com

by kacesq 2004-11-02 09:57AM | 0 recs

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Re: new mexico

TNR had one reporter for one local newspaper at one precinct. Not very representative, me thinks. NM will be close, but don't be silly...

by Silent E 2004-11-02 09:58AM | 0 recs

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New Mexico early voting was high

46% of RV prior to today, according to CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/11/02/nm.early.voting/index.html

by berith 2004-11-02 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: new mexico

The blogger in New Mexico seems to think that it looks very Kerry.
But, he hasn't posted (yet) today.

by myjlf 2004-11-02 10:03AM | 0 recs

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Florida

These exit numbers are raw, and it really depends on what precincts they're coming from. We've still got to get ALL the dems to the polls. GOTV GOTV

by pollwatcher 2004-11-02 09:52AM | 0 recs

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Does this poll include early voters in FL and IA?

Does this poll include early voters in FL and IA?If yes, the trend is not very good as Kerry led IA by 9% and FL by 8% in early voter polls. If not, I think Kerry can claim victory now.

Someone give me the answer please?

by ddPCR 2004-11-02 09:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: Does this poll include early voters in FL and

It does not include early voters. The exit polls are, exactly as the name implies, conducted on voters exiting the polls.

Also, the evidence that Kerry led IA and FL early voting is tenuous. Most of it was based on very small samples <200 with high margins of error.

by bushsucks 2004-11-02 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: Does this poll include early voters in FL and

Regardless how raw and how small I would rather be ahead then behind ...

by Monkei 2004-11-02 10:07AM | 0 recs

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Bush interview

I saw a mini press conference on the NBC today show with Bush.
He was talking about how he gave it his all. I immediately said to my girlfriend, he knows, they already told him he was going to loose. It was the most humble I've seen Bush since 911.

I actually started feeling sorry for him, then I remembered what he's done to my country over the past 4 years!

by pollwatcher 2004-11-02 10:06AM | 0 recs

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Exit polls skewed

The gender ratio was 59% female, 41% male.

Steady, folks. The smart money still says it's going to be a late night.

by Gary N Deyana 2004-11-02 10:24AM | 0 recs

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Re: Exit polls skewed

Either that or feamles are turning out in far greater numbers than males...

by shlenny 2004-11-02 10:32AM | 0 recs

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Re: Exit polls skewed

Possible, but unlikely.

It's more likely the still modestly true stat that more moms stay home than dads... and those dads'll vote after work.

by Gary N Deyana 2004-11-02 10:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: Exit polls skewed

Yes, but those married moms are supposed to be Republican, according to the polls.

Single women are the one that are Democrats.

by Mass 2004-11-02 10:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: Exit polls skewed

Do you have a source that is not Drudge?

by Mass 2004-11-02 10:37AM | 0 recs

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Re: Exit polls skewed

But this year, there are several polls showing that the gender gap is not as wide as four years ago.

by bushsucks 2004-11-02 10:47AM | 0 recs

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Liberterian switch to Kerry.

I know NC very long shot but it does feel good when a woman who was a live long GOP member switched because of Bush. She was thinking about Liberterian but we talked and she is now going out and help Kerry out. She is injured but I told her about curbside voting in NC. It still makes you feel good to convert and talk one in to making the effort to give Kerry a chance. AR in Charlotte.

by AR in Charlotte 2004-11-02 10:41AM | 0 recs

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From PA Campaign

This is a great day for democracy. The people of Pennsylvania were presented with a clear choice, and they have gone out to vote in record numbers. The process is running smoothly, and the reports are that the Pennsylvanians are energized and eager to exercise their right to vote.

In the Northeast part of the state, the NBC affiliate reports that the Marks Center polling place in Wilkes-Barre - where 400 voters typically vote over an entire day - has already seen 350 voters with eight hours to go.

In Allentown, we expected four volunteers to show up for overnight duty - putting together canvassing packets and doorhangers up on doors. Twenty-five people showed up. Right now, the campaign parking lot is so full that cars are double parked and spilling into the street.

In Harrisburg, Becky Ogle, who is a person with a disability, and has a vehicle that can accommodate wheelchairs and has been driving disabled voters to the polls in Harrisburg area. She's started just before 8 AM this morning and will drive until the polls close. Helping her is Chris Ruge, who is two months and two days shy of being old enough to vote, but he took the day off from school to help Becky drive people to the polls.

In the Southwest, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports huge turnout:

At John McMillan Presbyterian Church in Bethel Park, for instance, voters reported waits of 25 to 35 minutes, which they said was unprecedented in recent years.
In the Newlonsburg area of Murrysville, the wait was up to 90 minutes.
At John Minadeo Elementary School in Squirrel Hill, a line stretched out the door and down Lilac Street.
About 200 voters had shown up in West Mifflin's 18th district by 10 a.m., and poll worker said sometimes they don't get that many all day.

And in Philadelphia and its suburbs, voters are coming out in droves:

WPVI, Channel 6, reported that "suburban voter turnout has been heavy."
By noon today, divisions in and around the University of Pennsylvania exceeded the total number of votes cast in 2000 by 300 votes. Since April 28, there have been 2,340 new Democratic registrations.
According to NBC 10, by 7:15 a.m., the queue to get into the voting booths at Temple Beth Zion-Beth Israel in Philadelphia stretched for half a city block.
At the Garnet Valley Middle School in Glen Mills, a suburb in Delaware County, the line to vote was 150 people long. The wait to pull a lever was 30 minutes.
Sigourney Weaver, who just finished filming in Pensylvania, called our Bucks county office last night asking what she could do to help today. Currently, she is out with hundred of volunteers canvassing in Bucks County.
David Morse (from the TV show, "Hack") is driving voters to the polls in Northeast Philadelphia

The election is running smoothly. Voters are informed and patient.

Tonight, Pennsylvania will help elect a new President and give America the fresh start it needs.

-- Tony Podesta, Kerry/Edwards Pennsylvania Campaign Manager
www.pavictory04.com

by Richard in PA 2004-11-02 10:44AM | 0 recs

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Slate's numbers

Slate has some exit numbers posted as well:
http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

Pretty similar, although they have the OH and FL margins at 50-49 Kerry. Is this an update, or using a different service?

by stackie 2004-11-02 10:56AM | 0 recs

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Re: Slate's numbers

As I read it, slate combined early-morning with early afternoon polls.

by kacesq 2004-11-02 11:03AM | 0 recs

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Bush interview

I watched the same press conference, and I thought that Laura Bush looked sad as well. He didn't seem as confident as he once did. I don't know if he knows but they must have a very bad feeling. I almost felt sorry for him, but didn't.

by ttayweloc 2004-11-02 11:02AM | 0 recs

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Re: Bush interview

I agree (not about feeling bad for him).

Also, look at the daughters. They looked pretty sad, possibly b/c they can't hide it like their parents. They could just be nervous - like me!!!

What is certainly true - Bush was more humble than I've seen him in 4 years.

by DPG 2004-11-02 11:06AM | 0 recs

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VNS

VNS was disbanded in 2003. Are your numbers from the successor organization? Where did you get them? A link would be nice.

by Sailfishermon 2004-11-02 11:03AM | 0 recs

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Slate Has Exit Numbers Too

Link Highlights:
OH: K50 B49, FL:K50 B49, NC K49 B51

by c0ppelius 2004-11-02 11:07AM | 0 recs

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Don't discount The Fonz

Okay, just a little humor to lighten up the day, but the Salt Water Pizza blog is saying that the Fonz from happy days is leading the polls.

http://www.scott-niven.com/saltwaterpizza/2004/11/the_fonz_takes_.html

Stupid, but still, a little funny.

by sue kaiser 2004-11-02 11:38AM | 0 recs

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Polls schmoolls

The way these state polls have shifted as much as 18 pts in a single day indicates to me that this election is not going to follow any of the old rules. All of the polls are weighted by formulas that are not going to apply due to huge differences in voter turnout. I'm going to go grab a case of beer, put on a pair of sweats and hook my computer up next to the TV. It's gonna be a long night.

by Slapmaxwell 2004-11-02 12:13PM | 0 recs