Early Exits

by Chris Bowers, Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 06:19:36 AM EST

I have no idea what they are going to be, but don't believe a word they tell you--good or bad. In 2000, the early exits were way off:
     Gore EE Margin  Final Result
FL	+3		tied
MI	-5		 +5
MN	-8		 +2
OH	+3		 -3
So forget Drudge and early exits--look only at turnout. Keep getting out the vote!

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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8 Comments

Shadow_head_small
you should also post the early exit polls from '02
Those were so off the mark, the news channels decided to scrap them.
by bushsucks 2004-11-02 06:28AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
But I thought they were banned?
I thought that the media had agreed to withhold the exit polls until after the polls had closed.  Or are we talking about black market leaks?
by Christopher 2004-11-02 06:30AM | 0 recs
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Re: But I thought they were banned?
I am talking about Internet leaks from Drudge, and possibly other sources with "ties to the campaigns."
by Chris Bowers 2004-11-02 06:35AM | 0 recs
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11 am things looking up
Just an fyi if you are looking for some good trends, the Iowa Electronic Markets, which get more accurate the closer you get to the final count are trending Kerry.

At 11 am CST this morning, the vote share was Kerry 49.9% and Bush 49.7%.  I realize their system isn't perfect(I've got a lot of objections about how they market it), but they've done a good job of predicting the final vote percentage if you understand its limitations.  It only works on the day of the election though; before that it's all over the map.

Here's the link to current quotes if you like this sort of thing:

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/66.html

by jd142 2004-11-02 07:13AM | 0 recs
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Re: 11 am things looking up
If you're looking at the Iowa Markets, the best contracts to watch are in the winner-take-all markets:

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html

The REP04_G52 pays a dollar if Bush gets 52% or more of the vote, this is now trading at 13 cents (12:30 pm). It's fallen most of the morning.

DEM04_G52 is at 17 cents. It was rising but has just fallen back.

Add the two DEM contract prices to get the likelihood of a DEM victory (in the popular vote).

Right now this is 51 cents (or a 51% chance)... much better than early this morning.

by econprof 2004-11-02 07:30AM | 0 recs
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Drudge comment?
Are you implying that Drudge has some scoop on early exit poll totals?  If so, is there a link to them?
by bushbasher 2004-11-02 07:15AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Drudge has a checkered history, going back to
the 2000 primaries.
by Cyt 2004-11-02 07:47AM | 0 recs
Shadow_head_small
Only the LINES "close"...
Remember: When polls "close" in the East at 7pm, they don't stop voting - only the lines are closed.  If voters show up and get in line at 6:50, they get to vote no matter how long it takes.

Voting in Kentucky and Indiana ends first at 6pm, and in many east coast states at 7pm, but we've seen very long lines in early voting.  In Florida and elsewhere, we've seen people waiting until 11pm to cast ballots.

And which side do you think is going to be that fired up and motivated to wait that long?  If you're doing GOTV, make it clear at the precincts:

  1. early TV calls for Bush are irrelevant - because our late numbers will be amazing this year!  
  2. early calls for Kerry don't matter because of the local races, and because we want to make sure that the popular vote margin is so big that the GOPers will throw in the towel rather than litigate to overturn a mandate.  
Bring a camping lantern and a deck of cards, pass out magazines, and order pizza!

Some of the pundits say that we might not know who wins until tomorrow.  Well, maybe that's okay because America will still be voting tomorrow!*  



* (Technically, this is always true because Alaska polls do not completely "close" until 1am EST, but aside from Alaska all other polls "close" by 11pm EST, including Hawaii.)

by Silent E 2004-11-02 07:51AM | 0 recs

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