Kentucky Senate race coming into range for Mongiardo

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Oct 08, 2004 at 01:47:05 PM EDT

I have been trying to get around to updating the Senate 2004 Outlook, and if Chris doesn't get to it first, I will, but let this tide you over, from Kentucky, this poll from GarinHartYang(D):

So, you start at a 47-39 lead by the Republican Bunning, then take note of the poll showing that undecideds have a 12% favorable rating for Bunning & a 41% unfavorable rating for the Republican, and your looking at a ~5 percent contest. Mongiardo(D) got a late jump onto TV, and Bunning(R) got an early start, outspending Mongiardo 4:1 thus far, but things are more equal now, and this race is still on the DSCC's radar.

It would help if there are Democratic incumbent Senators that are not being as hotly challenged, in order to free up the cash from those cases of defense. There was a recent report that the NRSC had cancelled over $1-2M of ad buys they had reserved in Seattle, for Nethercutt's challenge against the Democratic incumbent Patty Murray; and Barbara Boxer looks unbeatable in California. Only Tom Daschle looks seriously challenged, and god knows, he has enough money for SD's markets by now. Feingold 'might' need some late attention, but not yet; and so, it's on to offense for the DSCC. Kentucky & Pennsylvania, those are two Republican incumbents (Bunning & Specter) whose hides have come onto the Democrats radar this week.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

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Read this in a whining voice

I'll do it tomorrow! Stop nagging me!

:-)

by Chris Bowers 2004-10-08 01:49PM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: Read this in a whining voice

I forgot to add this, from the release:

Trailing by only 6 points. This is despite much less name recognition and far less money spent by the Mongiardo campaign. Among Kentucky voters who know BOTH candidates, the trial heat is reversed, with Mongiardo holding a strong 56%-to-38% lead over Senator Bunning.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-10-08 01:51PM | 0 recs

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Adding to the playing field

is definitely very important, IMHO, if we are going to take back the Senate.

The current scenarios for retaking the Senate all seem to rely on victories in states like Oklahoma, Alaska, and South Dakota, which makes me nervous, no matter how good of candidates Carson and Knowles are, and no matter how powerful Tom Daschle is. Possible, definitely. But likely? I don't know.

But if Pennsylvania and Kentucky (or somewhere like Missouri) come into serious play, I'll feel considerably better about our chances.

by demomatt 2004-10-08 01:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: Adding to the playing field

It's not so much that Carson and Knowles are good Democratic candidates for those red states, although of course they are; it's more that Coburn and Murkowski are such abysmally bad candidates that they could probably manage to lose anywhere.

by Alex 2004-10-08 02:37PM | 0 recs

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unequal effects of a win

if we win Pennsylvania, moderate
Republicans lose one of their few
remaining members.
O.K. if that's the price for
control of the Senate.

but if we win Kentucky, Democrats
gain a vote AND THE WINGNUTS
lose one.

also, media is cheaper in Kentucky.

I hope the DSCC goes with Dr. Dan.

by Woody 2004-10-08 10:10PM | 0 recs

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A Thursday SUSA poll ...

had some encouraging results for Mongiardo as well. I'll cross-reference a diary I penned yesterday evening on Kos' site with a little analysis on the race.

by Federalist 2004-10-08 02:03PM | 0 recs

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Kentucky Democrat

Kentucky's Democratic congressional candidates have been doing quite well, considering the current state of affairs -- Bush in insurmountably popular and the state elected the first Republican to the governorship in 40 years. As a Democrat from the KY-6th, I was elated at Ben Chandler's special election victory. The KY-2nd is tentatively leaning toward Nick Clooney's campaign to keep that seat in Democratic control, and Tony Miller is running strong in his attempt to unseat incumbent Anne Northup in the 3rd district. And now with Mongiardo gaining traction, the prospects are looking better and better for turning Kentucky blue in the next decade.

by wildcat156 2004-10-08 03:07PM | 0 recs

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Schumer

Chuck Shumer is rolling in dough here in NY and is a shoe-in for re-election.

by ineedalife 2004-10-08 04:42PM | 0 recs

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Dr Dan

I have been hesitant to support Mongiardo, but in Bunning's new attack ad, he quoted Dr Dan as saying US foreign policy is creating terrorists. He got my vote then.

by Aeryl 2004-10-08 05:36PM | 0 recs

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Bunning

Can't stand him as a politician but I liked him as a pitcher for the Phillies many years ago.

by clawed 2004-10-08 09:44PM | 0 recs

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Since you brought up the subject...

"Here comes Jim Bunning. Jim fucking Bunning with that little shit slider of his."
Wham!
"He doesn't really think he's gonna get me out with that shit."
Blam!
--Ted Williams during batting practice, as quoted in Ball Four

by RT 2004-10-09 06:06AM | 0 recs

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Rumors in Kentucky

This race is incredibly important to win to quell the possibilities brought forth in a huge huge rumor in Kentucky.

Rumor has it that since Buning's health is as bad as it is, when he is reelected (that's the key) he will then resign within two year, Governor Fletcher will appoint himself as the replacement. There has also been rumors that if Bush is re-elected Mitch McConnel will take a job there (word is that his health isn't so great either) and either Fletcher will take that seat, or appoint Congresswoman Anne Northup or one of the other repugs there.

So, everyone ought give to Mongiardo, he's got a lot of ground to make up, and this poll shows it's definately winnable. Plus it'll help end the career of Fletcher, who has been like a lame duck Governor, and will lose that job '07.

by joeyhunter 2004-10-09 07:00AM | 0 recs