If the national polls are a dead heat, Kerry will win

by Chris Bowers, Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 04:37:03 AM EST

Two days before the election, both Zogby and the Washington Post have the race tied at 48, although the Washington Post has Kerry "ahead" 48-47 among RV's. These numbers are so similar to the final election result four years ago, it would be easy to conclude that little in the country has changed, and that we are headed toward a nearly identical election result. However, I personally am very happy with these two polls, and if things remain tied going into Election Day, I love Kerry's chances. This is because:

Kerry is doing better in the battleground states than he is nationally. Yesterday, when Rasmussen showed a tie, Kerry held a noticeable lead in the 16-state battleground poll. That Kerry is doing better in the battleground than he is nationally has been demonstrated in poll after poll.
All the polls showing a tied race are among LV's. As 2000 and many other elections have made clear, the truth lies somewhere between LV and RV polls. I always believe that Kerry is doing around one point better than LV polls show, since he regularly does better among RV's than LV's.
The Incumbent Rule. As we are seeing, there will not be many undecideds for Kerry to clean up between the final polls and when most people enter the booth, but in a tight race, it will be enough to put Kerry over the top.
GOTV and early voting. Early voting from Florida, Iowa and Nevada looks pretty good. Nationally, it looks very good, as Kerry is either tied or only down four in states that Bush won by eight points in 2000 (he also won early voting in 2000 by double-digits). Also, our wave of volunteers and staff for our GOTV effort are of a scale not witnessed in recent decades, and I truly believe that it will add 1-2% to Kerry's final national total.

National polls at a dead heat favor Kerry big-time. We have spent four years working ourselves into this position, and now we need just enough spark to complete our mosh through the swamp toward the light that is now our faces. Get out there today and walk into the light.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Looks promising, but I'm still nervous

Kerry is in if the undecideds break as usual for the challenger. However, I'm still worried that the Bush scare tactics might give him more than the usual share of late deciders. On the other hand, I do think the polls are underestimating Kerry support because they underrepresent some groups of Kerry supporters and use LV models that favor Republicans.

So, overall I think we're winning, but it's too close for comfort. We have to keep working our butts off through Tuesday!

by EvanstonDem 2004-10-31 04:51AM | 0 recs

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Three fresh national polls out this morning

Fox:
Kerry 46
Bush 46

Zogby:
Kerry 48
Bush 48

ARG:
Kerry 48
Bush 48

Bush averaging 47.3

The fat lady ain't singing just yet, but she is warming up her vocal cords.

by Sin City Guy 2004-10-31 04:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Three fresh national polls out this morning

Wow! If Fox is showing a tie. I have to conclude Kerry is up by 8. ....I take it they're ignoring their own poll today?

by Cleveland John 2004-10-31 05:07AM | 0 recs

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The national Fox poll is weird

Unlike thier state polls, it has always seemed fair-but the internals are weird. They have Bush up with women and Kerry up with men (although both by just a point or two)-which seems wrong to me.

by Geotpf 2004-10-31 05:22AM | 0 recs

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Fox once again oversampled republicans!!!

Kerry 46
Bush 46

But, when the poll results are normalized with the .39D, .35R, .27I, we have:

Kerry 48.73
Bush 44.84

A 4 point lead for Kerry

by Sin City Guy 2004-10-31 05:34AM | 0 recs

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Fox shows a Kerry lead among RVs

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/103104_poll.pdf

45% for Bush.

That's a death knell.

by Cyt 2004-10-31 05:35AM | 0 recs

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Re: Fox shows a Kerry lead among RVs

Fox's polls often seem to have more undecideds than other polls, with both candidates getting lower numbers than in other polls. I wonder what that's all about (or maybe my impression is wrong on this).

by Haggai 2004-10-31 05:40AM | 0 recs

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Republican pollster on MTP

The Republican pollster who works with Peter Hart on NBC/WSJ poll just gave us the inside feelings of the Republicans on MTP. He said the Republicans feel they can only win a close race if the turnout percentages between DEM and REP is equal this year. Which as we all know will not happen. To big of a turn around from 2004. This is not 2002! where Dem turnout was lower due to an unenergized base. Anger turns people out.

by markgolf630 2004-10-31 05:14AM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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What Zogby says:

Pollster John Zogby: "The race is enjoined fully. Each man has consolidated his own base. Bush has good leads in the Red States, among investors, and among Republicans, Born Again Christians, men, and married voters. He is right where he needs to be.

"Kerry has a solid lead in the Blue States, and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters, and singles.

"Each man's lead among each sub-group is precisely where it needs to be.

"Kerry leads among Independents by 8 points. Bush holds a 5-point lead among Catholics.

"But the President's job performance is 46% positive, 53% negative. Virtually the same percentage feels he deserves to be re-elected (47%), while 50% say it is time for someone new. And 46% think the nation is headed in the right direction, while 47% feel it is on the wrong track."

Kerry's gain among independents (guess this confirms that Newsweek is bunk) is partially lost by the continued swing to Bush among Catholics.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-10-31 05:29AM | 0 recs

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Skeptical about internals

All internals. They fluctuate too much. The Catholic vote for Kerry was up a short time ago and then down again. I wonder what other swing internals have moved up and down like this.

by elrod 2004-10-31 05:36AM | 0 recs

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Re: What Zogby says:

If all those numbers are exactly accurate (big if for any one poll, of course), with each candidate positioned "right where he needs to be" with various sub-groups and base elements, then doesn't the incumbent effect break the tie? With Bush's job performance/re-elect/right track numbers at 46/ 47/46, where does he make the transition from being "where he needs to be" to getting over the top?

by Haggai 2004-10-31 05:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: What Zogby says:

I was wondering when Men and women would stabilize. Blew my mind that Zogby had Kerry up with men and down with women when CW is the reverse.

Did anyone find out what the 1 day number for today is? Since the poll is still close I am assuming the sample wasn't heavy Bush. Anyone know the numbers for today?

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-31 06:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: Men and Women

Uh, re-read the poll. It says Kerry up with women and Bush with men...

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-31 04:15PM | 0 recs

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It's Over

There is no way Bush can win now. Unless Osama is captured today or tomorrow or there is massive intimidation and fraud on Tuesday there is no way Bush can win. Not because of the Incumbent Rule, which I've always felt was overblown, but because of turnout. The numbers on new registrants are staggering. In past years we could say that these registrants wouldn't vote. But this year we have ACT, MoveOn and others in actual contact with these new registrants, making sure they vote. This will stun the observers who have only started to notice the trend in new registrations.

by elrod 2004-10-31 05:33AM | 0 recs

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Re: It's Over

Agree; turnout will close the deal

by pleunis67 2004-10-31 05:53AM | 0 recs

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The little gift

Well I think it's safe to say that Bush is not getting a surge from the Osama Bin Forgetten' tape!

by bushsucks 2004-10-31 05:46AM | 0 recs

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Both candidates have the votes they need

But will they turn them out? That's the kicker.

Anyway, I have an idea (this happens occasionally).

And that is, that the poll numbers we are looking at tell us a lot more about the pollster who took the poll, than they tell us about the election.

by clawed 2004-10-31 06:02AM | 0 recs

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Ohio

anybody have any new info on Ohio? I think the Zogby poll from yesterday was a little due in part to the Ahnold and Bush rally...ugh... I am confident we can still win it, but it's gonna be due to the turnout.

by nicknite81 2004-10-31 06:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: Ohio

Bush +5 last I heard, but I tend to doubt it. Unless the OBL tape succeeded in a few states. Not sure.

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-31 06:46AM | 0 recs

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It's over. What's next?

I'm at that pre-Election stage when -- since there's not a damn thing I can do now to change the numbers (if I ever could!) -- I'm thinking ahead to various scenarios.

We've all been talking about a split in the electorate as though this is or should be a temporary phenomenon. But I'm not sure it will be unless we do something to change that. Just as we look back on 2000 as a weird and really undecided context, we may, in 2008, be looking back at 2004 in the same way. And this may go on for years. Why? Because so many Americans want to go back, or at the very least don't want things to change in ways they can't anticipate.

What unites people who ordinarily wouldn't stick together behind Bush and the Right is their desire to avoid the unknown. What the Dems need to do -- whether we win or nor this time around -- is to create a vision of the future which is so attractive, so,um, noble, and at the same time so familiar, that we pry loose all but the most recalcitrant among the cowering, rigid Righties.

(It's interesting to go back and look at the various Dem candidates and ask oneself what kind of future each offered, if any...)

by Bean 2004-10-31 06:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: It's over. What's next?

I think philandering only got Clinton in trouble, and only superficially. Kennedy's wasn't played up, wasn't know to that many.

They wanted Clinton outta there, badly. Whitewater wasn't working for them, so they unbuttoned his fly.

Clinton was a remarkable president in many ways, but he didn't have an overall plan, not the kind we need. If he'd had that (or maybe he had that but didn't get it across), he would have carried the party to a long term series of wins. Very very few Republicans actually like their party's behaviors in Congress, are uneasy and defensive about the cynical redistrictings, etc.

by Bean 2004-11-01 04:00AM | 0 recs

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natrional tracking polls

This election will be decided by turn out in a few key states. My guess Ohio and Florida. We need one of them. National tracking polls out today with leaners show that right now the election is tied at 48 48.

zogby 48 48

wsh post 48 48

abc 49 48 bush

rass 48.8 48.3 bush

TIpp not out yet

by markgolf630 2004-10-31 07:27AM | 0 recs

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national polls (edit)

Sorry made mistake on RASS its

48.8 bush 48.2 kerry

I think these tracker should put to rest the myth of a OBL Bush bounce.

by markgolf630 2004-10-31 07:36AM | 0 recs

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Tomorrow's Tracking Polls

With Sunday being the best day for Democrats, tomorrow's Zogby and Rasmussen polls should have Kerry in the lead narrowly. I can't sense a trend for either by the one device that best measures trends--tracking polls--so this election goes into the final 48 hours as a pure toss-up.

by flatblade 2004-10-31 09:27AM | 0 recs