WI goes from Bush 49-46 RVs to Kerry 52-44 LVs?!?!

Madness!  

But my, oh my, those FL and OH numbers are a thing of beauty.  Almost every other poll has Kerry winning PA, so I'm not too concerned about that.  But Kerry at 49-51 in FL and OH, and Bush in the 45-46 range...please, please let it be true.

Among  likely voters(3 percent undecideds)
Kerry 47,
Bush 49

Among likely voters(breakout  2;1 based on prior voting pattern)
Kerry 49
Bush  49

Still great coming from Gallup and their biased samples.

Bad News, for the sake of argument, is that there is not much room for Kerry to move.  Of course the fight is won in EV, so lets GOTV.

It really is halloween...

50-46 Kerry

Party ID-
R: 92-6 Bush
D: 90-8 Kerry
I: 50-42 Kerry

The non-conspiritorial take on this is that their LV screens are so tough and lean Republican that as more folks make up their minds, get more engaged (and actually vote), the screens have less of an effect at the end.

Thanks

Zogby's cell phone poll is favoring Kerry (Joe Trippi)

Finally, someone has done a SMS Text Messaging poll of cell phone users
between the ages of 18 and 29.  Last night, John Zogby conducted the survey
in conjunction with Rock the Vote and the results revealed a 15% lead for
John Kerry over George Bush among these voters.  Kerry had 55% with Bush
garnering 40% of those surveyed.

I've been looking at the data from polls in state after state- and there is
a common pattern in most of them.  Among voters over the age of thirty, Bush
or Kerry (depending on the state) hold a very slim advantage.  Among voters
under the age of thirty- and in just about every state- Kerry holds a
significant advantage over Bush.   So if this is true, if among those over
30 it's a dead heat or Bush has a slight advantage, then why with Kerry's
huge advantage among those under 30 just about everywhere, is that advantage
not enough to show him in the lead in national and state polls?

The reason in my view is that pollsters are using old turn-out models for
younger voters, and are failing to see the increased intensity among these
voters, and therefore are likely to be surprised on Tuesday night.  It is
now becoming increasingly clear to me that if John Kerry wins on Tuesday it
will be due to an unprecedented turnout among younger voters.

Using Florida as an example:

  Zogby statewide has the race 49% Kerry to 47% for Bush.

  Among voters 29 years old or younger, it's Kerry 63% and Bush 24%

  Among voters over 50 years old its Kerry 44% and Bush 51%

  With a statistical dead heat among all voters between 30 and 50 years of
age.

If there is a higher than expected turn out of young voters in Florida- John
Kerry wins the state, and probably with it the White House.

This tends to be true in most of the states that are still up in the air.
What this means is that voters between the ages of 18 and 29 are the future,
and what they do on Tuesday will decide the nation's futures for the first
time in decades.

No wonder John Kerry has suddenly begun to use the Howard Dean "you have the
power" refrain in his speeches in these last days of the campaign.

Please let me know what you think, and please let me know of any stories,
animations, or facts you think need to be reported on between now and the
election.   E-mail me right now at Jtrippi@msnbc.com

Thanks, Joe

Bush won Texas 59 to 38 in 2000.  The latest Survey USA poll has Bush leading 59 to 37.  They are way off, look for Texas to be around 54 to 42, then apply that degree of tightening nationally and you will have a Kerry landslide.  I hope.

Joe Scarborah also quotes sources inside the Republican campaign suggesting Bush has experienced a surge.

Is it me or this complete nonsense. Bush's support nationally, in states like Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Minnesota all seems to have eroded over the past 4-5 days, while Kerry has remained constant, perhaps picking up a few leaners. All indications are that Undecided's are going to break for Kerry. All indications are that the Democrats are going to exceed the Republican push to get out the vote. The only place where there has been any forward momentum for Bush has been in Ohio, which now looks tricky for Kerry.

Has anyone heard anything on the grapevine about Democratic internal polling. Greenberg said some nice things about the Osama tape, but anything attributed to Mary Beth, or Mr Brum?

I will be taking a man with a broken back and
his wife to the Benton County Courthouse she
voted for Bush last election but now is voting
for Kerry only with our follow up and encouragement she is going, she really thought
about sitting it out but now she has support
and help.

I will be like a laser keeping my eye on the ball
and prize.

Then comes the happiness of knowing you did your
best.

I did not do much last time gave some money to
Gore and Mary Landruie in Louisana but I want
my country back. I want the best and brightest
in there then making decisions based on wisdom,
discernment and courage.

I want to encourage everyone to

WORK

WIN

CELEBRATE

BACK TO WORK TO CLEAN UP A MESS