Dueling Strategies
by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Oct 30, 2004 at 04:13:23 AM EDT
Markos on Daily Kos pointed out that the Kerry campaign's TV buy is currently ahead of the Bush campaign by a 18:13 ratio in Ohio, and a 17:12 ratio in Florida. Tad Devine pointed this out in a "state of the race" conference call that was held yesterday with the media. Tad made the same point a week earlier regarding Florida, which Chris had posted, so we can conclude that this is a two-week closing strategy for the Kerry campaign.
The established narrative is that the Bush campaign went into the RNC attempting to bury Kerry, 1988-style, during August; and came out of the RNC pumping Bush in paid media, which resulted in Bush having an overall lead in the polls clear up to the debates, when Kerry pulled even. You have to give the Kerry team credit for sticking to their plan and reserving their resources until the end, in order to dominate Florida and Ohio. It came at the expense of not being on the air much in Sept-Oct, sure, but currently, likely, at the expense of TV dominance in the lesser battleground states.
If you look at what states the 527 resources are going toward, at least for ACT & SEIU, over half of their many millions have poured into Florida, Ohio, and (to a lesser extent) Pennsylvania (the Big 3). And it's the same with other groups that get out the Democratic vote, like NDN and EMILY. The Kerry campaign has looked at this race as two-tiered. Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania in the first; Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in the second. Notice that Michigan wasn't mentioned.
It's been CW that if Kerry sweeps the first-tier, he wins. And if you are operating under the Kerry strategy of the two-tiers, it's true. If Kerry takes away the 2000 red states of FL, & OH, he just needs to hold onto PA to win. Kerry could lose IA, MN, WI, even NH & NM, even HI (Cheney must be scoping Hawaii out for retirement, cause this won't happen unless it's a Bush landslide), but even with all those going to Bush, Kerry would still have 271 EV's. But I didn't mention Michigan.
Given the Democratic dominance in Ohio and Florida, Rove had to find an alternative route to 270 (er, 269) for Bush-- one that didn't attack Kerry at his point of strength. That strategy, while still making Kerry hold the dominant advantage in OH & FL with a fight, is attacking another cluster of states beyond the two-tiers in the Kerry outlook. First, two additional points of strength for Kerry (Pennsylvania & New Hampshire); second, two (now apparent) soft spots for Kerry (New Mexico & Michigan).
Just paying attention to recent polling and candidate stops (which leaves plenty on the table), Kerry's strategy has left the southwest open (like the Red Sox with a three-run lead in the 9th, Pujols can steal second if he wants), and New Mexico's 5 EV's are now in Bush's column; PA & NH are still solid Kerry states; it's Michigan that's troubling.
Bush taking Michigan makes it possible for Bush to lose the Big 3, and still win. Bush, in winning NM & MI, would need to sweep those states (MN, IA, WI) identified above as Kerry's second-tier (Bush could garner a 269-269 tie by winning just WI & MN-- a 2-out-of-3 scenario).
The Democratic effort had to slip a bit somewhere by focusing on Florida and Ohio so intensively, and though Kerry has the advantage in the Big 3 states, Bush has opened up alternatives-- add MI to what's now the Big 4.
We know ACT lessened their presence in Michigan, but really, who can fault their terrific effort to win Pennsylvania, Ohio & Florida. Especially when you consider that they follow the lead. Perhaps it's partly Granholm, who seems popular but lacks skills in party building and partisan strength? Perhaps, but I notice a more glaring problem that bloggers have pointed out over and over this cycle.
If there's a state where the DCCC totally caved to the Republicans, it's Michigan. Despite a 9-6 delegation advantage for the Republicans in this blue state, not a single Republican-held seat is being seriously challenged. The 7th, 8th, 9th and 11th are all CD's where Bush was held to 50-51% of the vote in 2000. Yet, not a single one of those has a top-tier Democratic opponent. Heck, not even one of them is amongh the top-70 contests being followed, and some of the Republican congressional members in Michigan don't even have Deomcratic challengers.
I am sure there are all sorts of reasons why this has happened from the DCCC's perspective, but that doesn't excuse the matter. irrc, John Dingell leads the Democratic delegation in Michigan, and he's failed mightily. Already having a lesser GOTV plan to other states, the federal down-ticket Democratic ballot in Michigan is not even close to par with those in any of the other battleground states. Rove has spotted the weakness, and is now exploiting it as an alternative to losing Florida and Ohio.
Tags: General 2008 (all tags)
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