Second to Last Presidential Projections

by Chris Bowers, Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 09:38:26 AM EDT

As you could probably have guessed by the sheer volume of my posting yesterday, I am still in Philadelphia. This evening I will be going out to Bucks County in order to work with the Schrader campaign, for which you guys have raised an astounding $6,700! My trip is two days later than expected, but at least I will finally be going. I'll have lots of pictures while I am out there, and still have fairly regular posting on politics and the election before I return to the city for Election Day. I expect to post more later today as well.

Before I leave later this evening, I wanted to update my Presidential projections. I have used leaners from the four tracking polls for the first time, and I currently project the final popular vote at Kerry 49.97, Bush 48.53. Also, I have narrow leads for Kerry in all five of the closest states:

    Kerry   Bush
FL   49.7   48.6
IA   50.9   48.4
NM   49.4   49.4
OH   50.4   49.1
WI   50.1   47.9
Every other state goes as you would expect, and the only other state projected closer than three percent is Nevada (Bush +1.9). This comes out to 311-227 in favor of Kerry. I allocate undecideds, so this race is tight, tight tight.

I hope everyone out there is volunteering for Democrats this weekend. All the historical evidence points toward the final undecideds (now only 2.9% of the electorate) breaking heavily for Kerry, but it is not a guarantee. The outcome is still very much in doubt, especially with extensive vote-suppression efforts on the part of the GOP. Be part of the tsunami that puts us over the top.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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26 Comments

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New Electoral College survey posted
For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/27) survey of 67 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.

Executive summary:  By the evidence of the trackers, the race continues to be virtually tied: Bush has 253-257 votes and Kerry has 248-254.   Although one candidate or the other shows a slight edge in one category or another, neither has a clear-cut advantage.

I'll be posting an update -- perhaps my las -- tomorrow (Saturday) morning, at this address.

by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-10-29 09:43AM | 0 recs
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WI and OH
As ever, seem to be the key.  Without either, I just don't see how Bush gets to 269 without a major upset someplace.
by Deeg 2004-10-29 09:48AM | 0 recs
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Chris,
That's all well and fine, but you forgot Poland.
by danielj 2004-10-29 09:50AM | 0 recs
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Re: Chris,
And the Marshall Islands.
by Chris Bowers 2004-10-29 09:53AM | 0 recs
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Re: Chris,
And Morroco
by Carol 2004-10-29 10:33AM | 0 recs
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Re: Chris,
2-1 break for Kerry in undecideds in your analysis. If it breaks evenly, does Kerry win the EC?

thanks

I appreciate all your hard work.

by DPG 2004-10-29 10:36AM | 0 recs
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2000 polls flashback
Check out this link for the pre-election polls from 2000.  As you can see only three polls by my count got it right or really close in the days right before the election: Zogby and CBS (both of which had Gore up) and Harris (a tie).  Everyone else had Bush up.
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm
by DBerg 2004-10-29 09:59AM | 0 recs
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Undecideds
I have no confidence in them breaking Kerry's way. My guess is, in a time of war, that rule probably goes out the window.
by acrossthepondlife 2004-10-29 10:05AM | 0 recs
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Re: Undecideds
In 1964 and 1972, the rule held. In 1956, 1980 and 1984, all during the Cold War and various crisis situations, the rule held.
by Chris Bowers 2004-10-29 10:11AM | 0 recs
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CNN - 2000
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/29/124640/61

Here's a CNN poll from late Oct. 2000 that shows Bush with a substantial lead.  We all know how that one turned out.  This gives Kerry supporters cause for optisism....

by global yokel 2004-10-29 10:18AM | 0 recs
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Elect. Coll. Map Wrong
I don't know who to tell about this, but the EC map and calculator on the left side of the MyDD home page currently shows Kerry winning IN. That seems unlikely.
by zoechow 2004-10-29 10:33AM | 0 recs
4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal
Re: Elect. Coll. Map Wrong
Yea, I was getting Miles to update it so that we could have an undecided for election night. Tuesday morning you'll wake up to a clean slate of states, ready for MyDD to call the winners.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-10-29 01:05PM | 0 recs
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FL is in Kerry's bag
FL is in Kerry's bag.

Don't believe polls, I believe he is leading at least 3 points there.

Bush is desperate. He send Chenney to HI and head for MI himself. Maybe He realized that he will lose FL.

by ddPCR 2004-10-29 10:34AM | 0 recs
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2000 Polls
Since Zogby was close in 2000 he has a lot of pressure to repeat that. But he wasn't right in predicting which states would be close. I think polling has become a lot less "predictable" and that's why we see so many with wildly different results for the same period of time.

We will go back and say "They forgot to figure <insert reason here> when they did their polling. Given the changes in phone usage (cell phones, caller ID) random samples are self selected by the person that chooses to answer and so are not completely random.

I also think the "likely" model based on previous years is distorting the results this year. So look for us to be discussing how much we worried and fretted when it turns out to be a blowout. New registrations are NOT motivated by a desire to pat Bush on the head and say "good job" and give him 4 more years. They are angry. The are energized.

Kerry will win popular vote by over 10,000,000 and get a 100 point electoral vote margin.

by Tuba Les 2004-10-29 10:40AM | 0 recs
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polling
The very fact that the polls are all over the place has increased interest in this election, therfor raising turnout on election day. I see this as a benifit to our side all across the nation, not just in the swing states. If the polls were consistent that might dampen turnout, since we tend to do better with higher turnout I'm happy that we don't see a consistent pattern in the polling.
by Timby 2004-10-29 11:11AM | 0 recs
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Re: polling
Very good point.  Not to mention that it's been that way in any number of states, which means that it isn't just one or two states that will see such increased attention.

It will be interesting to see whether the turnout numbers are vastly different in battleground vs. non-battleground states.  Will the intense interest mean that people come out everywhere, or will folks in New York and Alabama just not bother?

by sdf 2004-10-29 11:47AM | 0 recs
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Damn
My prediction for the popular vote, made on Oct 23, was Bush 48.8%, Kerry 50%, other 1.2%. My EV precition is a hell of a lot closer than yours though -- Kerry 272, Bush 266. I had Bush taking FL, IA, and NM and Kerry with WI, OH and MN.

I may win the dkos and metafilter prediction contests yet. :-)

by rusty 2004-10-29 11:54AM | 0 recs
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Interesting Assesment
The new math is interesting, but damn I am sick of the voter-suppression charge.

> The outcome is still very much in doubt, especially with extensive vote-suppression efforts on the part of the GOP.

Any excuse but the fact the dems put up a horrible canidate that ran on raising taxes.  It is such a scape goat and really is disgusting.  

Good Luck on Tuesday

by Patrick Henry 2004-10-29 12:24PM | 0 recs
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We are sick of it too
If your side didn't do it, we wouldn't have to mention it.
by Geotpf 2004-10-30 07:35AM | 0 recs
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Read My Lips
In my hometown, we call it LANDSLIDE!

And the young will be leading.

by NickG 2004-10-29 01:02PM | 0 recs
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Bin Laden Video
I just got a bad taste in my mouth from watching the BBC showing of the Bin Laden tape which could now make all the predictions meaingless.

Was this Rove's October rabbit from the hat? A tape in American hands for a few weeks, months even.  Delivered anonymously to Al Jazeera who fall right in and play it.  

Just a thought but I can feel things slipping away..........tell me I'm wrong.  If so, how on earth is Kerry going to respond to the call to stick with the President?

by Earthling 2004-10-29 01:56PM | 0 recs
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Re: Bin Laden Video
That's this reason why American need a new president and commander-in-chief. Because Bush only cares about Iraq, which make Bin Ladin still alive and plan further attack three years agter 9-11.

Do American peaple want to see the similar tape in 2008? If so,just vote for Bush. Otherwise, GOTV for Kerry!!

by ddPCR 2004-10-29 02:09PM | 0 recs
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Re: Bin Laden Video
After months of tin-foil theories about how Rove might reveal bin Laden's capture right before the election, we now have a theory about how Rove is revealing that bin Laden HASN'T been captured right before the election?  Can we make up our minds about which supernatural powers we attribute to the Bush campaign?
by Haggai 2004-10-29 02:13PM | 0 recs
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I don't see why it should...
...help either candidate.  Both candidates were clear that America would not be intimidated, and would hunt down the terrorists wherever they are.

It's possible that Osama's tape will remind Americans of the WOT, in case they had forgotten about it.  (Yes, that was sarcasm.)  Or, it could remind Americans how GWB has mishandled the WOT, letting Osama escape in the process.  At the end of the day, I don't think it will affect either campaign.

by KTinOhio 2004-10-29 02:53PM | 0 recs
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Re: Bin Laden Video
Why scare yourself, guys.

I don't think it will help Bush, if not hurt him.

by ddPCR 2004-10-29 02:57PM | 0 recs
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It's going to be about turnout numbers
Let me add my prediction of turnout to Chris's projection. According to Dave Leip (www.uselectionatlas.org) The number of Registered Voters (RV) was in:

  1. 157 mln
  2. 145 mln
  3. 133 mln
  4. 126 mln

This is a growth of about 7.5% per election (higher in the recent elections). I estimate growth since 2000 is better than that, say about 8.5%, means RV is about 170 mln.

The turnout % of RV's was in:

  1. 67.1%
  2. 66,0%
  3. 78.1%
  4. 72.5%

As high as in 1992 it will not be this time, but a 5% extra turnout sounds reasonble to me, so put it at 72%.

This makes a turnout of (72% of 170mln) of 122 mln. Wow! about 16 mln more than in 2000.

What do you think (readers/Chris)?

But more important: who will get these votes?

(See also Sam Wang's discussion about turnout.)

by pleunis67 2004-10-30 01:01AM | 0 recs

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