I Like This Trend

by Chris Bowers, Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 02:33:32 PM EDT

Online chat with John Zogby:Normal, Ill.: Which of the states which now seem most "in play" would you say are actually the most likely to go to Kerry and which of them to Bush?

John Zogby: The think is that the daily numbers just confound me,. Just when I think there is a trend one way it seems to be stopped in its tracks and goes the other way. For now Pennsylvania looks good for Kerry so does Ohio. Minnesota and Wisconsin look like they are breaking for Kerry right now. My new Reuters numbers will show Kerry moving into the lead in Florida. But obviously this is a very volatile situation.

This is also nice: Doha, Qatar: There has been lots of press regarding large number of early voters. Is there any indication whether these early voters are largely Republican or Democratic?

John Zogby: Characteristically the early voters we are capturing in our polls are not leaning one way or another. They are a dead heat.

Bush led Gore by 10-15 points in 2000 early voting. The states with early voting favored Bush by eight in 2000.

I'm outta here for Bucks in about five minutes, but I'm sure you will find the exact new Zogby numbers soon.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Polling
I dunno, when I hear John Zogby mention volatility, I don't feel that comfortable with the numbers.  I heard two reporters today on CNN, one from the National Review (so you would expect a slanted view of the race), the other from the Atlantic, both predicting a Bush win with about 300 electoral votes.  When I went over all the current polling, it didn't seem possible; Kerry definitely seems ahead.  When I hear the word volatility, though, that sounds a loud alarm.

Also, there are too many polls out today where Bush is polling at 50%, and the battlegrounds are sooo close, and now the Osama tape.  

Accckkkk.

by mady 2004-10-29 04:05PM | 0 recs
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Re: Polling
Did they qualify this prediction with a "but the race is close, things are still up in the air" statement?  Or is this their final prediction?
by agpc 2004-10-29 04:24PM | 0 recs
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Re: Polling
It was on Inside Politics, and Judy Woodruff basically told them to take a leap into the definite and predict.  I was just very surprised to hear the Atlantic Monthly guy predict a Bush win.  No question in anyone's mind, however, that this is close.
by mady 2004-10-29 04:31PM | 0 recs
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Re: Polling
Bull
The only way Bush is polling 50% is using likely voter models. In other words, the pollster (FOX) get to choose whose vote counts.
by warp resident 2004-10-29 06:20PM | 0 recs
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So Chris
How's it going in PA-08?
by clawed 2004-10-29 05:42PM | 0 recs
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Wasn't Iowa...
...an exception to the rule of early voters breaking for Bush four years ago?  If memory serves, Bush actually tallied more votes on Election Day, but couldn't overcome Gore's pre-Election Day lead.
by KTinOhio 2004-10-29 06:00PM | 0 recs
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This is correct
And Kerry's leading in early voting there again.
by Geotpf 2004-10-30 07:45AM | 0 recs

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