Closing strategies for the candidate stops

by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 11:34:33 AM EDT

Here's the next three days of schedules for Kerry and Bush(from Hotline):

         |  TODAY    |  10/28    |   10/29   |   10/30   |   10/31   |
---------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
Kerry    |SiouxCity, |Toledo, OH |Orlando,   |    TBD    |    TBD    |
         |CdrRpds, IA|Madison, WI|Miami, FL  |           |           |
         |Rochestr,MN|Columbus,OH|           |           |           |
---------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|------------
Bush     |Lancster,PA|Saginaw, MI|Mnchstr, NH|GrndRpds,MI|Orlando, FL|
         |Findlay, OH|Dayton, OH |Columbus,  |Ashwbn, WI |	     |
         |Detroit, MI|BcksCty, PA|Toledo, OH |Mnpls, MN  |	     |
---------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|

Further, Bruce Springsteen will join John Kerry at campaign rallies in Madison, WI, and Columbus, OH, on Thursday, October 28th, and join the Democratic nominee for an election-eve rally in Cleveland, OH, on November 1st. Bruce will perform one or two songs (Kerry campaign). Bush isn't even gonna come even close to topping the Boss in Cleveland on a Monday night.

Though Bush is only at 44% in both the Zogby and the Mitchell poll of Michigan, Kerry's numbers have fallen a bit in the state, and Bush is making a push with three visits to Michigan over the next 4 days. It will be interesting to watch whether Kerry responds with a Michigan visit of his own over the weekend. Will Kerry play defense over the weekend, or offense? And if both, how much offense?

In the endgame moves here, Kerry is running out the clock by shuttling back and forth between Ohio and Florida, his main offensive. Bush, besides trying to keep OH & FL at bay, has another strategy in play by visiting the blue states where he's got traction (MN, IA, WI), and those where Bush is trying to make Kerry cover (NH, MI, PA).

Rove has Bush trying to put as many states in the 'close' column as possible. Behind in the polls, the Republicans want a very muddy playground in which to start the litigation efforts post-11/02. Kerry probably doesn't want to, or need to go back to Michigan, or New Hampshire, or Pennsylvania. Maybe instead, or combined, one more SW swing left to NM/NV/CO that messes with the Rovians? I think he's more likely to cover the bases.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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35 Comments

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why so little FL for Bush?
why so little FL for Bush?
by zoechow 2004-10-27 11:45AM | 0 recs
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Re: why so little FL for Bush?
Makes strategic sense.  He can still win without Florida, but is assuming he has it won.  So he is hitting the Upper Midwest and Ohio.  If he takes several of those, Florida is academic.  It is a gamble.  I guess it really depends on what his internal pollsters are saying.  That or Jeb has already fixed FL.    
by yitbos96bb 2004-10-27 12:41PM | 0 recs
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health & travel
That Bush took a day off without sneaking to Iraq, and that he likes to fly home every night to sleep in his own bed, leads me to believe the theories that he's having some kind of health and/or back troubles.

By not going to Florida & concentrating on consecutive states, he minimizes the amount of travel he has to do while having three events per day.

by HumptyDumpty 2004-10-27 01:23PM | 0 recs
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Re: health & travel
You may see a lot of Florida travel right before the 2nd.
by dmsdbo 2004-10-27 03:20PM | 0 recs
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Re: why so little FL for Bush?
At some point you guys will step back and look at the electoral college map. Bush isn't going for a win he is going for a mandate. Something over 325 electoral college votes.

Who would have guessed Hawii, Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington would be in play along with the extended battleground states of MN, WI, IA, OH, NH, PA and FL. Well...I did, but I am just one of those rose colored glasses types who think it will be good for the country.

Kerry has..........New York locked up, I guess. He is the comeback kid though. Good luck next tuesday.

> MORE

Go Badnarik!

by Patrick Henry 2004-10-27 07:58PM | 0 recs
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Re: why so little FL for Bush?
I'm afraid there is something right about the previous post (not the part about it being good for the country, of course.) Whether for show or not, the Bushies seem to be planning an attacking schedule.

However, I hear GWB is also headed to NH, which is too puny to be any help in building a mandate. (Why not concentrate on MI or PA?)

Seems to me they are confident about FL, and worried only about the possibility (however large or small, it clearly is a possibility) Kerry wins PA MI OH MN and WI. Taking NH would be insurance against that combo.

by zoechow 2004-10-28 05:34AM | 0 recs
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Re: why so little FL for Bush?
Every state helps. You are probably right he should be in New Jersey, that state would seal the deal for him. The last poll I saw from 10/26 showed Kerry up by 1%.

Ohio looks a lot closer than it is. This state will come down to turn out in which the Republicans have a built-in advantage with the marriage amendment on the ticket.

I do think he is going for more than a win though. Bush has a huge following at his stump speeches; around the country he is filling stadiums. He doesn't need to offer a free concert to get people to listen to him speak either.

by Patrick Henry 2004-10-28 06:43AM | 0 recs
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Re: why so little FL for Bush?
> with the marriage amendment on the ticket

Seems unlikely to make a big dif to me. People are so invested in the presidential contest that this itself will drive turnout up. And clearly GWB does not share your confidence about this, or he wouldn't be visiting OH so much -- he would be going for an increased margin of victory in MI NJ and PA.

> he should be in New Jersey

Not my point. My point is, if Bush were really as confident as you suggest, he would be in NJ. Or just camping out in MI and PA.

Seems to me that the only reason to worry about NH is if you are worried about the possibility of losing the EC by a narrow margin. That may itself be a sign of confidence, though, if that is the only thing they are worried about -- I don't know.  

by zoechow 2004-10-28 07:09AM | 0 recs
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PA in the bag
I'm hearing from some very good sources that the Kerry campaign is starting to move some people out of Pennsylvania. They are  obviously confident it's a done deal over there. Bush has not been ahead in any poll in PA since mid September.
by Sy Gold 2004-10-27 11:48AM | 0 recs
4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal
WV & AR
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A450-2004Oct26.html

Two other ones for late TV buys maybe... Hawaii, gmab.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-10-27 11:49AM | 0 recs
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Bush in MI, Not in IA
Michigan seems like something of a longshot for Bush, while Iowa definately does not. Interesting that he is going to Michigan three times, but isn't going to Iowa once.
by Chris Bowers 2004-10-27 11:50AM | 0 recs
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Bush must think...
he has Iowa in the bag. And, I suppose, if he loses Ohio, everything depends on Florida and Wisconsin.
by Brian CB 2004-10-27 12:02PM | 0 recs
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states
Kerry is drawing such huge crowds compared to the modest bunch of hand-picked attendees at Bush rallies that I wonder if Bush wouldn't be better off to stay in the White House and pretend to be dealing with urgent matters?  
by global yokel 2004-10-27 11:51AM | 0 recs
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Re: states
What are you estimates based on? I have seen Bush fill staduims like 53,000 in AllTel Stadium. I went to one in Chanhassen, MN (No I didn't have to give an oath - LOL) and there were 10-15,000 people. He also filled the Excel Energy Center here in town and is expected to fill the Target Center this weekend.
by Patrick Henry 2004-10-28 07:20AM | 0 recs
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either great or terrible
That chart is fascinating. It's like trying to read tea leaves. The fact that Bush is going to PA and MI and not returning to FL until the 31st smacks of desperation. I want to believe that they are falling back to their plan B of giving up FL and trying to sweep the midwest. NH seems truly desperate. But what if they think they have FL in the bag? The public polls say this can't be so. But that seems too good to be true. The narrative could be: Bush takes the fight to blue states; or, it could be: Bush gives up on Florida. Florida is so central to his reelection, why the heck would he be spending most of the week before the election in other places? It doesn't take that much longer to fly from Ohio to FL than it does to fly to NH. Scratches head.
by Waterdog 2004-10-27 11:54AM | 0 recs
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They don't think that they...
have it in the bag. They campaigned there last weekend. Hard. They just have a lot of places to go, and not much time. Bush will just have to leave the margins for Jeb! and voter suppression. It's not desperate. It's realistic. It's the smart play, given this candidate's strengths. If Jeb! can't steal Florida, and Kerry wins it, all is lost for BC04. But that's a reasonable chance for Rove to take.
by Brian CB 2004-10-27 11:59AM | 0 recs
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Re: They don't think that they...
"Desperate" and "realistic" are not mutually exclusive!

God, I can't stand this. To think we could only be looking at two more months of chimpy to suffer through....

by Waterdog 2004-10-27 12:02PM | 0 recs
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Part of the issue is...
that Bush heavily depends on his Cult of Personality All-Retail-Politics-All-the-Time brand of campaigning. That means a lot of face time with The Base. Television isn't going to be as effective for him as it might be for Kerry. Second, if you recall Adam Nagourney's report this weekend, Bus was using trappings  of the commander-in-chief aspects of the presidency has a stage prop while campaigning in Florida. (Just imagine the Fox Broadcasting outrage if Bill Clinton had done the same in 1996.) Can't use Marine One if you're not riding in it--that's just too obvious, even for Karl Rove. It's also not quite as easy for Bush to use surrogates--Cheney's charisma notwithstanding, he's not going to move many swing voters. Both Edwards and the Big Dog have no shortage of charm. Don't get me wrong, Kerry makes Bush look bad whenever the two appear together, but Bush is an amazingly effective smaller-crowd politician. Kerry's improved a lot, but has built a campaign that doesn't revolve around his showing up everywhere he expects to get a vote.
by Brian CB 2004-10-27 11:56AM | 0 recs
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Game Theory
For some insight into what these visits might indicate see: http://slate.com/id/2108640/
by DPG 2004-10-27 12:03PM | 0 recs
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Re: Game Theory
Nice read, thanks for the pointer.
by PghArch 2004-10-27 12:16PM | 0 recs
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Stay East
It just takes too much time to fly out to New Mexico, Nevada or Colorado, and although you "gain" hours flying there, you really take a hit flying back East.

If Kerry decides to get adventurous, I think we're more likely to see him in Arkansas, Missouri or West Virginia than out in the Rocky Mountain states.

by CADem 2004-10-27 12:13PM | 0 recs
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I'd have Kerry do one day in NV-NM-CO
and otherwise hit the Midwest (liberal definition - including WV and western PA) and FL.

I'd have Edwards do one day in NC-VA-WV and squeeze in a stop in AR, then back to the 'red' parts of the Midwest.

I'd send the Big Dog to AR, then back to the Midwest.  But let's not have him overdo it.

by RT 2004-10-27 12:14PM | 0 recs
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Is Howard Dean campaigning?
Howard Dean would seem to be a natural to rally young voters in Iowa and Wisconsin college towns.  Does anyone know if he's campaigning for Kerry?
by ProfAlan 2004-10-27 12:28PM | 0 recs
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Re: Is Howard Dean campaigning?
Dean will campaigning in Wilkes-Barre, PA tomorrow (Thursday) with Congressman Paul E. Kanjorski (D-11).
by Peter 2004-10-27 12:55PM | 0 recs
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offense vs. defense
They say the best defense is a strong offense.  I say hit MI on 10/30 to get some of the airtime away from Bush and provide a nice contrast on the local news, and then go on offense by hooking up with Bubba in Arkansas.
by shlenny 2004-10-27 12:34PM | 0 recs
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litigation
To be fair, you make it sound like the evil Republicans are planning cynical litigation if they lose, while we angelic Democrats plan no such thing.

If the election is at all close, it will be litigated whether it should be or not.  They need to take their responsbility, but so should we.  

by alhill 2004-10-27 12:49PM | 0 recs
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I wouldnt much too much stock in
Bush's final campaign stops. Remember the victory tour through California in '00?
by jp2 2004-10-27 01:11PM | 0 recs
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Re: I wouldnt much too much stock in
Exactly. I think this is in part their strategy. Aura of a winner, we're on the offensive, look, the Democrats are defending we're attacking, etc..

Ben P

by Ben P 2004-10-27 01:31PM | 0 recs
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Look at Where Bush is Going in PA
He's going to Lancaster.

That is where all the Amish live and they are a fairly large community. They do not have telephones or computers and therefore are not showing up on anyone's radar.

Bush has met with Amish leaders and seems to have support there. Amish often do not vote but are apparently "allowed" to by their religion. It would be interesting to see whether Amish registration is up in PA.

by Cat M 2004-10-27 02:33PM | 0 recs
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Re: Look at Where Bush is Going in PA
Look at Michigan, too.  Saginaw and Grand Rapids = base.  He isn't going after swing voters there.
by dmsdbo 2004-10-27 03:21PM | 0 recs
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Re: Look at Where Bush is Going in PA
He's wasting his time in Minneapolis and Detroit, as well as PA.  What an idiot.  He may win.  But he's an idiot.   He should be living in Wisconsin and Ohio.
by shlenny 2004-10-27 03:54PM | 0 recs
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some might be interested in this windows app
i wonder if some might be interested in this windows app that lets you play with poll numbers and probabilities and estimates probability that kerry will win.

http://mircryption.sourceforge.net/Beta/Mep

by mouser 2004-10-27 03:42PM | 0 recs
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New Hampshire
Kerry will return to New Hampshire on Sunday.

http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/3860285/detail.html

by BigModerate 2004-10-27 03:59PM | 0 recs
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Kerry, go to TEXAS!
Turn that boat into enemy fire and hold a huge rally somewhere in Texas. Get everybody talking about the bold and fearless character who dares to get in their face.
by idook 2004-10-27 04:47PM | 0 recs
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Re: Kerry, go to TEXAS!
I live in Texas...not a good idea.  Gore went to Texas right before Nov. 2, 2000, and a lot of good that did him.

Trust me, the media narrative would be "Kerry has lost his mind" not "Kerry is brave!"

by agpc 2004-10-27 07:39PM | 0 recs

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