Kerry is very well positioned to win Florida. First, here are the four most recent polls:

Miami-Herald10/19-10/21, 800 LV's, MoE 3.5
Kerry 46
Bush  46Research 200010/18-10/21, 600 LV's, MoE 4
Kerry 48
Bush  47Quinnipiac10/15-10/19, 808 LV's, MoE 3.5
Bush 48
Kerry 47Survey USA10/15-10/17, 601 LV's, MoE 4.1
Kerry 50
Bush  49

Clearly, right now things are very close in Florida. In these four polls, Kerry averages 47.75, while Bush averages 47.50. However, Kerry is well positioned in four key areas to win the state, while Bush is only well-positioned in one.

• GOTV. As I noted yesterday, Democrats are significantly outperforming Republicans in early voting across the state. Early voting patterns in Florida clearly show a Democratic surge (emphasis mine):In Florida, a sampling of eight counties showed a consistent pattern of Democrats turning out to cast early ballots in greater proportion than their share of registered voters, while Republicans were going to the early voting sites at or below what their registration percentages would suggest.

  In Seminole County, for example, Democrats make up 31.7 percent of the registered voters but 40 percent of the early voters. The same was true in Republican-leaning Brevard County, where Fred Galey, supervisor of elections, said that he had no specific figures but that "many more Democrats" are casting ballots than Republicans.

  In Osceola County, a Democratic bastion, Democrats are turning out for early voting in higher percentages than their share of registered voters, while Republicans are below their registration levels. The same was true in Hillsborough, the highly populated county where Tampa is located.

  Our new registrations and turnout work are clearly paying off, which will help tilt a close election toward Kerry.

• Paid media. Kerry is well ahead in current television ad buys in Florida. According to Ted Devine in a conference call earlier today, Kerry has 17,000+ points right now in Florida, while Bush only has 12,000 points. That is a significant edge over the air in the final week, which will further help Kerry in a close election.

• Endorsements. As Jerome wrote earlier today, Bush has been shut out in major newspaper endorsements:

                    '04  '00  '96  '92
  Maimi Herald       JK   AG   XX   XX
  Orlando Sentinel   JK   GB   BD   GB
  Tampa Tribune      XX   GB   BD   GB
  St. Pete Times     JK   AG   BC   BC

  The Orlando Sentinel went for Kerry, and the Tampa Tribune did not endorse. Both went for Bush in 2000. This will also help Kerry win a close election.

• The Incumbent Rule. If Kerry's very slight edge in the polls, Democrats large edge in GOTV, and Bush's bagel in major newspaper endorsements are not enough for you, remember that incumbent President's have historically received very few undecideds. There is a massive amount of evidence that suggests an incumbent's final standing in the polls is as high as that President will reach in the actual election.

All of these factors, which cover nearly every aspect of an election, make Kerry the favorite to win Florida. Apart from a last minute rally, the only play that Bush has in Florida is his brother. After all, Jeb did help Bush steal the state in 2000, so I imagine they will use their levers of power to try and do so again. Fortunately, on this front, Kerry is much better prepared than Gore.

Let the sunshine in. Winning both Ohio and Florida by 1.0% or more will go a long way, if not the entire way, toward a post-November 2nd attempt by the Bush campaign to delegitimize a Kerry victory on November 2nd.