NC-11: Keever Leading, Incumbent Taylor at 41%
by Chris Bowers, Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 10:37:04 AM EDT
The survey conducted by the Asheville Center for Social Research at UNC Asheville found that 41.2 percent of residents polled support Taylor, 43.5 percent would vote for Keever, and 15.3 percent were undecided.
The poll involved 493 residents of Buncombe, Henderson, Haywood and Transylvania counties contacted by telephone between Oct. 11 and 21. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, the two candidates are in a statistical tie, said Mark West, director of the center and a professor of mass communication at the university.
"All we can say is it's a dead heat," he said. "The surprising thing is we can't predict a winner at this point. I don't think anyone predicted it would be a tight campaign."
That's because in eight years the center has been conducting the poll, Taylor has always led his opponents by substantial margins, West said. In the election two years ago, the congressman received 55 percent of the vote to 43 percent for his challenger, Sam Neill.The poll is not of the entire district, but here are how these counties went for Taylor in 2002:These are just four counties, but they went for Taylor in 2002 by the following margins:
Buncombe 51.52% Haywood 49.39% Henderson 64.04% Transylvania 55.75% 4 County Total 60.18%You gotta love that headline--an incumbent at 41% in counties he won with 60% in 2002 is "in a statistical tie." Bwahahahahaha! Taylor's performance at the debate may have helped swing things.