NC-11: Keever Leading, Incumbent Taylor at 41%

This is how you spell pickup:U.S. Rep. Charles Taylor slightly trails challenger Patsy Keever in a poll released Friday.

The survey conducted by the Asheville Center for Social Research at UNC Asheville found that 41.2 percent of residents polled support Taylor, 43.5 percent would vote for Keever, and 15.3 percent were undecided.

The poll involved 493 residents of Buncombe, Henderson, Haywood and Transylvania counties contacted by telephone between Oct. 11 and 21. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, the two candidates are in a statistical tie, said Mark West, director of the center and a professor of mass communication at the university.

"All we can say is it's a dead heat," he said. "The surprising thing is we can't predict a winner at this point. I don't think anyone predicted it would be a tight campaign."

That's because in eight years the center has been conducting the poll, Taylor has always led his opponents by substantial margins, West said. In the election two years ago, the congressman received 55 percent of the vote to 43 percent for his challenger, Sam Neill.

The poll is not of the entire district, but here are how these counties went for Taylor in 2002:

These are just four counties, but they went for Taylor in 2002 by the following margins:
Buncombe		51.52%
Haywood 		49.39%
Henderson		64.04% 
Transylvania	55.75% 
4 County Total	60.18%
You gotta love that headline--an incumbent at 41% in counties he won with 60% in 2002 is "in a statistical tie." Bwahahahahaha! Taylor's performance at the debate may have helped swing things.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

Comments

3 Comments

correction
The four county total should be 54.53%, with a 2002 winning percentage in those counties of 10.7%.  However, wince Keever is doing 13.0% better than that, and Taylor won with 12.7% overall, things are looking promising to finally knock off Taylor.
by CA Pol Junkie 2004-10-23 11:20AM | 0 recs
Help us
 Taylor is an anti-environmentalist who follows Tom Delay right down the line. Our Dem. Patsy may not have all the MoveOn/ACT support - but she's run an amazing grassroots campaign. So help us if you can - we've got phoning,... to do. You non NC folks can help us pull off a major upset of one of the wealthiest members of congress. Any of you Georgia "red-staters" want to come visit our beautiful mountains and make a difference?
by rural WNC 2004-10-23 12:14PM | 0 recs
Caveats, but still looks good...
The four-county polling is a little deceptive, as Buncombe Co. in particular is more liberal than the rest of the district. That said, Buncombe (i.e. Asheville and the surrounding area) constitutes one-third of the total electorate.

Taylor now says it's 'too late' to debate with Keever. Funny, that: he had plenty of opportunities, most recently at UNC-Asheville on Thursday. Instead, he holds secretive press events at RNC headquarters.

The 2002 swing, though, is remarkable. Taylor got few of Liddy Dole's coattails then, showing how divisive a figure he is in NC-11. No Dem candidate has ever been within reach of Taylor at this point in the campaign calendar, but this time round, you're more likely to find Republicans supporting Patsy than Dems voting for Taylor's pork-barrel promises.

With the RNCC producing ridiculous, defamatory ads to counter the work of the DCCC, and Taylor's campaign efforts looking increasingly amateurish and threadbare, this one's up for the taking. It's now down to the ground game. And since Patsy's been doing grassroots work for the past year, she's hit the ground running.

by etagloh 2004-10-23 03:15PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads