Kerry Surging in Ohio

by Chris Bowers, Fri Oct 22, 2004 at 11:47:29 AM EDT

All week long, Ohio has been a source of great excitement: The latest poll from Scripps just adds fuel to our momentum:

	 Kerry	Bush
Scripps    49	 43
Gallup	  50	 45
Fox*	  44	 49
SUSA*	  49	 47
ABC	  50	 46
Zogby*	  48	 51
M-D*	  45	 46
Rass*	  47	 47
Ucincy*    48	 46

* = likely voters.

Further, earlier today the Ohio Supreme Court officially rejected Nader's plea to be on the ballot (PDF). Things just keep getting better.

	      Kerry  Bush
Simple Mean    47.8   46.7
Central Mean   48.0   46.5
Median	      48.0   46.0
Mode	      48.0   46.0

Ohio and New Hampshire plus the Gore states equals 284 Electoral Votes. Keep piling on the pressure.

Yeearrggghhhh!!!!!!

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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True, but . . .

Even if we win OH and NH, we are in jeopardy of losing WI, MN, IA, and NM. Several combinations of those states going for Bush would make winning OH for naught.

This is my worry.

by seattleelvis 2004-10-22 11:52AM | 0 recs

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Not MN

Bush has never hit 48% in MN. Its not going to happen there for him.

by Chris Bowers 2004-10-22 11:54AM | 0 recs

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Re: Not MN

Zogby gave Kerry a huge lead in NM, and Richardson is very popular. NM will stay blue. But losing WI and IA would overcome wins in OH and NH. I'm optimistic about both, but winning another red state (FL, NV, AK, MO, CO, WV or VA) would be helpful insurance...

by feynman 2004-10-22 12:03PM | 0 recs

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Yeah it would

I want OH, FL, NH and PA in Kerry's bag early, allowing for any early Election Night projection of a Kerry victory. Take as many Red states as possible.

by Chris Bowers 2004-10-22 12:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Yeah it would

I absolutely agree. But given that every Kerry victory scenario includes the Pacific states, I don't expect any early predictions of a victory. Unless a miracle happens and they can say that Kerry would win even without California... Anything else would smack of calling a state before the polls close, now a taboo.

I'll be waiting patiently for the 12:05 A.M. announcement.

by PghArch 2004-10-22 12:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: Yeah it would

They may not call it, But if Kerry wins PA, OH, FL, IA, and WI, then we know this is over. Even if we have to wait for the big announcement. It would take a miracle for Bush to win CA and if he gets the 5 states listed, I can't see that happening; other than massive fraud.

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-22 07:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: True, but . . .

The recent poll numbers in Iowa are partiularly troublesome. If we lose Iowa, Kerry really needs to win in both Wisconsin and Minnesota. If he wins both of these states than NM won't matter and if he loses either than winning NM won't be enough anyway.

Thus my advice for the Kerry camp is to spend as much time as possible in Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota as possible. Win these 3 states and you've won the election. (BTW Edwards should be visiting the more rural areas where his populist message resonates so well) Also make sure you have a legion of supporters from MA heading to NH for the next few weeks working on GOTV.

by jasont 2004-10-22 12:26PM | 0 recs

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Re: True, but . . .

Kerry is going to keep NM and MN. He now looks good for Ohio. So he just needs to hold WI or IA, both of which are close. However, if Kerry takes FL (looking better now) then it's all over.

by mmurphy 2004-10-22 12:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: True, but . . .

Kerry is going to win Florida just like Gore did. Only in a reality-based way. Jeb's been prepping for 4 years.

Bush knows Ohio's gone. He's just staying in gaffe or October Surprise range. If he didn't know he had Florida, he'd be working harder (See Chris Suellentrop on Bush slack-off on slate today)

Wisconsin and Minnesota are the real battlegrounds. This is so off the common wisdom that it's spreading very slowly. But it's true.

And they both have same day registration. Get the celebs there Nov 2.

Here's the math: Kerry takes OH, PA, NJ, MI, NM the northeast, the northwest. He's at 252. Bush takes CO, IA and the red leaners, he's at 261. WI and MN are 10 each. Bush just needs one. Kerry two. Unless Iowa goes blue. Or Clinton works hard in Arkansas. Then Bush needs both WI and MN.
Both Edwards might have made a difference in Iowa. (And Elizabeth has been brilliant in WV, I'd get her a room there.)

But same day registration in the northland is our key to victory now.

by MazeDancer 2004-10-22 03:35PM | 0 recs

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Re: True, but . . .

Minne-haha isn't a problem, and I don't think we'll lose NM either.

The calculation comes down to this: if we win Ohio we need one out of IA and WI to win. Losing both will give Bush the win. We need one; and the Bushies, I think, realize that too.

by TheGaffer 2004-10-23 11:15AM | 0 recs

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Bush has written off Ohio

Bush has written off Ohio, though not officially. Bush knows he can win by picking up Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa -- and he leads in all three (sure, a poll here and there will show a Kerry lead, but on average, most objective journalists now have Wisconsin, Iowa, and Florida leaning Bush). I admit that Florida is a real toss-up, but some polls in Iowa and Wisconsin have Bush up by more than 4-6 points. Wisconsin was a Gore state, barely, and Kerry called the Mecca in Wisconin, Lambeau Field, "Lambert Field". Good lord. That cost him 5,000 votes in that one comment alone.

While I'm very pleased and comfortable winning Ohio, I gravely, gravely worry that Bush will pick up the TRUE TRIFECTA: Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Those are the three final battlegrounds if you ask me.

by KansasJayhawk 2004-10-22 12:22PM | 0 recs

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Bush don't lead in Wisconsin.

He just don't. Right now it's a genuine tossup, and has been trending Kerry for a coupla weeks.

by Teaser 2004-10-22 12:25PM | 0 recs

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Lambeau Field

Wisconsin was a Gore state, barely, and Kerry called the Mecca in Wisconin, Lambeau Field, "Lambert Field". Good lord. That cost him 5,000 votes in that one comment alone.

Bullshit. I don't buy that for a second. Might be fun to talk about, but here in the reality-based community it doesn't fly.

I'd like to find even ONE Wisconsinite whose vote was actually changed by that. I'm from next door (Michigan, now living in Ohio), went to UMich, and just like Wisconsin we take our football very seriously here. But the man misspoke. Who cares? If he were running for the job of Wisconsin sportscaster, sure, crucify him. But he's running for President. We can in fact tell the difference between football and reality. Perpetuating this rumor just pushes the idea that the Midwest is a bunch of stupid hicks, and that just isn't true.

I will pretty much guarantee that everyone who pretended to be offended was a Bush supporter already. I'd call this the biggest non-story of the election, but there have been so many other BS stories this election that it doesn't even make the top ten.

by drewthaler 2004-10-23 09:34AM | 0 recs

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focus

Do not let up. You're all right that Ohio is not enough. We must also win one of the following: FL, WI, IA. That's where this will be won or lost. Focus people.

by WSW 2004-10-22 12:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: focus

The 4 states KE04 should place the most emphasis on are Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

by danielj 2004-10-22 12:35PM | 0 recs

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According to the MyDD Poll Tracker...

Kerry leads, 277-261, with Ohio, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in his column. Iowa and Florida are in GWB's column.

by KTinOhio 2004-10-22 12:56PM | 0 recs

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Going to Iowa

I'm going from California home to Mom in Iowa next week with a friend to canvas and work through election day. Former Iowans -- you know you are all out there; Iowa's biggest export next to soybeans is people. It's time to go home again, visit your Mom and drive people to the polls!!!

by johnlarca 2004-10-22 12:57PM | 0 recs

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Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin

I agree with the comment above that Bush seems to have given up on Ohio, though of course he will need to keep up appearances because Busco is nothing but appearances. That said, it seems to me that Bush is probably not ahead in the Iowa polls or if so by very little. Strategic Vison has what I think are the most recent polls and that soldily Republican outfit shows a tie without Nader and a one point Bush lead with him. Susa and Mason Dixon show Bush with a six point lead but Susa is too wild to be believed even if it has good news as it sometimes does. I have had repect for Mason Dixon polls, but a Donkey Rising post shows that that have consistently given a bigger Bush number in all the states they poll. Zogby shows Kerry ahead in Iowa by a decent amount. So it seems to me that Iowa is the key state to concentrate on since it seems so close. Personally I think Kerry will also carry Wisconsin, but the case for Bush being ahead there is stronger than Iowa. I do not think there is any real chance that Bush will carry Minnesota and Ventura's endorsement of Kerry, even if was wierd, will probably help. NM is closer than it should be but I think Kerry will win it. So I say Iowa plus tries for WV (which again looks possible), Arkansas (if Clinton can help there), and Colorado. Nevada too is possible though less encouraging than earlier. It just seems to me that Bush needs a huge amount of luck (or fraud) to win without Ohio. All of this assumes an unrelenting effort in Florida which goes without saying.

by herodotus 2004-10-22 12:58PM | 0 recs

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Zogby shows Iowa for Kerry

according to electoral-vote.com. Zogby poll from 10/18 shows Kerry ahead 51-48. The polls have been all over the place in Iowa, making me believe that it is all going to come down to the ground game there. Kerry has a strong presence on the ground in Iowa; don't forget what Iowa did for Kerry in the primaries. That was all about the ground game. I live in Kansas, which is obviously Bush country, but am heading up to Iowa next weekend for ground work.

by flashman 2004-10-22 01:29PM | 0 recs

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Wisconsin

Isn't there an African American running for Congress from Milwaukee? She'd be the first black to represent Wisconsin in history. That should help turnout in Milwaukee.

by elrod 2004-10-22 01:36PM | 0 recs

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Mason Dixon

Is the second most consistently pro-Bush outfit after Strategic Vision. Everywhere.

Just as Zogby Interctive is better for Kerry everywhere except Ohio.

by elrod 2004-10-22 01:39PM | 0 recs

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M-D again

I forgot to add that Mason-Dixon has Wisconsin tied right now. If their pro-Bush bias holds then Kerry is doing well there.

I think the most accurate midwest polls are the Chicago Tribune ones: Kerry is ahead in OH, MN and WI and behind in IA. If that holds then Kerry will be elected.

by elrod 2004-10-22 01:41PM | 0 recs

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Re: M-D again

And the Tribune is a GOP paper...I still can't believe they endorsed Bush

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-22 07:19PM | 0 recs

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Judy Woodruff loves the Mason-Dixon Poll

Did anyone catch CNN today touting the Mason-Dixon Poll today. Judy Woodruff could barely contain herself, since most of it seemed like bad news for Kerry. She failed to mention any other polls, which is strange since at the top of her show Bill Schnieder mentioned more than one poll when discussing Kerrys appeal to women.

Judy also had Liz Cheney on. Why is it ok to be a child of the candidate and go on TV and trash the other candidate, but it's not ok for that other candidate to say something nice about them? Or even say thier name?

by realitythink 2004-10-22 02:29PM | 0 recs

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VA, NC

For the longest time I thought these need a few years before they would be blue, but the last two SUSA polls have me wondering. VA 50-46 for Bush & NC 50-47 for Bush and the trends over the past 3 weeks are very favorable (VA +7 to Kerry, NC +4 to Kerry). In VA it's only 49-47 for Bush using "Certain Voters" which probably means nothing. Even in M-D September poll (when Kerry was way down nationally), Bush couldn't break 50 in VA. There have also been huge increases in voter registration in each of these states this year from what I have heard. I'm not predicting a Kerry win in either state, but these races are surprisingly close from all appearances. I'd encourage those who thought of sitting on their butts on election day to get out the vote. If Kerry wins either state by surprise, there is almost no way he loses the election.

by asearchforreason 2004-10-22 02:40PM | 0 recs

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OH WI MN Polls

Try to find polls that actually list the people on the ballot in each state, which in each case includes Badnarik (L) who certainly does not draw mostly Kerry voters. 2- and Bush-Kerry-Nader polls likely show Kerry at his worst, because Bush will be losing votes to republican-related third parties. This, the situation in most states is probably better for Kerry than public polls would suggest.

Of course, it is a really good bet that campaign internal polling has this nailed down, just as exit polling at early voting locations is already giving an imprecise indication of the future. (Though the only example of this that I have seen shows Kerry carrying Delaware, which should surprise almost no one, and shows two third-party candidates* there at 6% of the vote, each, which suggests that first day early voters are seriously unrepresentative of the body politic and perhaps even of early voters as a group.)

*Badnarik and Cobb

by phillies 2004-10-23 04:54PM | 0 recs