A Look At Florida, North Carolina and Virginia

by Chris Bowers, Wed Oct 20, 2004 at 11:44:27 AM EDT

I have recently gone into detail on Ohio (see also Mystery Pollster on Ohio) Nevada, and I also made a post about how well Kerry is doing in every single Gore state plus New Hampshire. This is a look at Kerry's chances in the electoral rich, but traditionally lean Republican, southeast coast.

Lots of people complain about Survey USA's use of automated phone calls to conduct their polls, but one thing Survey USA has in spades over any other polling firm are public internals. With every press release, they provide detailed breakdowns of numerous subsets of the overall poll, rather than hiding dramatic top sheet results inside a black box methodology. Even though every firm should do this, as far as I can tell only Survey UISA does.

By being open with their internals, Survey USA is able to produce charts like this one that was brought to my attention by a reader. The chart measures how well Kerry is doing among Independents in thirty states compared to his overall standing in the state. The results for certain swing states are intriguing, but I am only going to focus on three particularly fascinating states: Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. With 55 electoral votes, these three states make up 20% of the electoral votes from the 2000 Bush states.

Florida
Overall: Kerry 50, Bush 49
Among Independents: Kerry 57, Bush 39
Independents from 2000: Gore 47, Bush 46
2000 Party ID Turnout: 40% Democrat, 38% Republican, 22% Independent

My goodness, Kerry is winning by 18 among Independents in Florida? As it turns out, Survey USA's sample was 41% Republican and 35% Democrat, a shift of seven points in the GOP's favor since 2000. That is not likely to happen, since Democrats are ahead of Republicans in new voter registration since 2000. With Democrats already leading in party-self ID in Florida, the new voter registration and Kerry's crushing lead among Independents make things look surprisingly good in Florida. Even RCP currently shows Bush at only 47.5 in Florida, a perilous position for an incumbent President. Still the Bush junta in the Sunshine state looms as a major obstacle.

North Carolina
Overall: Bush 50, Kerry 47
Among Independents: Kerry 52, Bush 43
Independents from 2000: Bush 59, Gore 37
2000 Party ID Turnout: 41% Democrat, 38% Republican, 21% Independent

Good gravy, could Kerry actually win North Carolina? With an advantage in Democratic self-identifiers, an advantage for Democrats in new voter registration, and an advantage among independent voters, Kerry actually looks like he is in the game here. There has been very little polling of NC lately, but the last two polls put Bush at only 50.15% with a miniscule 2-3% undecided and no Nader on the ballot. It is probably too expensive to spend any more money on TV ads in a state as large as North Carolina, but if Bush were to drop just one more point--one and a half points at the most--then Kerry could very well win here.

Virginia
Overall: Bush 50, Kerry 46
Among Independents: Kerry 49, Bush 45
Independents from 2000: Bush 56, Gore 36
2000 Party ID Turnout: 35% Democrat, 37% Republican, 28% Independent

Virginia just refuses to be put in Bush's bag. In the only two October polls from Nader-less Virginia, Bush averages 49.8% in a state with only 3-4% undecideds. In Virginia, where Democrats have gained in new voter registration and where they were already nearly even in party self-identification, Kerry holds a small lead among independents. In 2000, Bush won Independents in Virginia by 20. Again, just like North Carolina, a Bush drop of one to one and a half points would make Virginia a complete toss-up, if not slightly lean Kerry.

Overall, Kerry looks pretty good in Florida, and surprisingly still very much in the game in both North Carolina and Virginia. While this election is by no means over, Kerry is indeed winning right now. Further, with a shift of just tow points away from Bush nationally, combined with normal undecided break and kick-ass GOTV, Kerry could be looking at an electoral mandate nearly equivalent to Bill Clinton's two electoral vote totals

Visualize it, and make it happen.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Turncoats kill democratic chances in the South

Chris:
I like your analysis, but there is one big problem with both North Carolina and Virginia as well: Zell Miller-lite Democrats. They may be registered as Democrats because their great-great-great granddaddy, who lost a leg in the "war of northern aggression," was a Democrat, but they vote Republican in presidential elections. No analysis of the effect of Independents can be done in the south without a breaking out democratic turncoat percentages.
By the way, what do you think about propects for turning a state like Arkansas and it's 6 EVs with some face time for Clinton in Little Rock to give Kerry some insurance if Ohio and Florida don't work out?

by filadog 2004-10-20 12:00PM | 0 recs

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Re: Turncoats kill democratic chances in the South

I'm sorry to say, but I agree. Here in TN, there are too many of those Dems (the kind that elected our Gov, but would never vote for a Mass. Senator over a good-ole-boy.). I still think we might win in TN, but it will be because of young and independent turnout.

by DonBinTN 2004-10-20 01:53PM | 0 recs

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Re: Turncoats kill democratic chances in the South

True -- but the people in these polls would obviously say they were voting Bush even if they were Democrats. And I doubt that many of the newly registered Democrats are the "old-timey" variety. Don't look at the voter ids from 2000 -- worthless. Look at the poll numbers and new registrations for the faintest outline of the situation.

I say Clinton ought to go here (VA + NC) if well enough.

by dmsdbo 2004-10-20 03:22PM | 0 recs

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350 EVs

For some reason, this is the figure I've fixated on. "Use your intution, Luke!" Only, unlike W, I'm a member of the reality-based community, so my intution is infused with all sorts of analysis just like this.

I think that both VA and NC are eminently winnable. The margin is well within the range where GOTV wins elections. Just enough bad news for Bush--more high-profile defections from the traditional GOP elite, more families of soldiers in Iraq with thick Southern accents telling their stories on TV, etc.--and a strong, upbeat finish by Kerry, and that could shift a tiny faction away from Bush and over to Kerry, and a larger fraction away from Bush into stay home.

Of course, I'd also really like to see us take the Senate seats for Kentucky and both Carolinas. With a little extra mustard, please!

by Paul Rosenberg 2004-10-20 12:02PM | 0 recs

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My Thoughts

I've always thought that Kerry was going to pull off an amazing defeat of Bush in Virginia. It has shifted alot since 1992, and our analysis has always pointed to a very close race. I was very disappointed when Kerry gave up on the state.

by sharris0512 2004-10-20 12:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: My Thoughts

I wouldn't say that Kerry has given up on Virginia. Rather, he knows that a win in Virginia will be icing on a big electoral victory. That is, it's a tougher win this year than Ohio or Florida (or Wisconsin or Iowa). He needs to win those states to get to 270, and, speaking as a Virginian, I'm glad he's focusing his money and time on them instead of campaigning and advertising here.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Kerry-Edwards campaign has some surprise campaign visits planned for the final week. Bush went to New Jersey, only to be followed by a poll showing him losing by 13%. But if Kerry and/or Edwards go to states like Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, Missouri, Arizona, and Colorado, where Bush's lead is small and his total support is often below 50%, they can generate some buzz.

There's another thing working in Kerry's favor: Bush won't campaign or buy ads in Virginia because it would be a huge sign of weakness, even though polls show it to be a battleground. If Kerry gains a few points in polls over the next few days, Bush's numbers in Virginia and the other states above ought to become even more precarious, and he'll be presented with a real quandary. Does he campaign in them and show weakness? Does he continue his faith-based Rovian victory lap? Does he follow the same logic that led Kerry to pull advertising and resources from Virginia (i.e., if Bush cannot win Ohio and Florida, he can't win the election, so focus on them)? My guess is he'll mostly follow this last approach, with some added visits in states he ought to have locked up.

Bush is campaigning this week in Colorado (in a heavily conservative area), but his campaign could at least spin the visit as support for Pete Coors. No such luck in Virginia. If, as I suspect, this race breaks late for Kerry, many of the states currently leaning toward Bush will go to Kerry, because the Bush campaign couldn't afford to show that they were ever close.

by deminva 2004-10-21 06:13AM | 0 recs

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Make it happen

Chris, this is the scenario I have been dreaming about. Back in August when we did a long-range predictions thread, I put in an 'anonymous hero' bid in which I suggested that strong base mobilization, dissaffection with the Bush regime, plus heroic GOTV could mean victory in Va and NC

by aruac 2004-10-20 12:09PM | 0 recs

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Email

Chris, I believe I sent you an e-mail from our group here (Progressive Strategy Research) about running some BlogPAC ads on local Virginia sites. I think you should consider it.

by sharris0512 2004-10-20 12:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: Email

YES

Get the 527s in the action down there and let Kerry save money for barrages in OH, FL, WI, PA and IA

by dmsdbo 2004-10-20 03:24PM | 0 recs

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Florida Registration

Although the Democrats lead Republicans in registration gains overall, I believe that I saw recently that in Florida the Republicans had added more votes than Democrats. So you might want to check that out; I would love to learn that I am wrong. But as I recall the difference was slight, and independets also increased. So basically I think your analysis is correct, particularly considering the oversampling of Republicans in the poll.

by herodotus 2004-10-20 12:15PM | 0 recs

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I voted in Miami, Florida today

Today was the third day of early voting in Florida. Voter turnout seems quite high. I thought that by waiting until today I could avoid long lines. That was not the case; I had to wait about 15 minutes. I have to qualify this by pointing out that there are fewer early than regular polling places. However, I've never waited in line at my regular polling place.

by coomes 2004-10-20 12:28PM | 0 recs

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Question on Electoral College

I was at Boston Globe's electoral map and placed in a hypothetical scenario and came up with a dead tie of 269/269. It could happen. Break down is this:

Kerry:

WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, WI, IA, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI and WV (keep this last one in mind).

Bush:

AZ, UT, AK, NV, ID, WY, MT, CO, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, MO, IN, KY, TN, AL, MS, VA, NC, SC, GA, and FL, OH.

As you can see, I gave Bush the win on Florida and Ohio to see how Kerry could lose both those states and still win. Giving the swing state of WV to Kerry, I came up with the 269 tie.

What happens when both candidates tie, both scores being below the 270 needed to be elected?

by matbiscan 2004-10-20 01:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: Question on Electoral College

Article II, Section I. (And most importantly, the 12th Amendment.)

The House elects the President by a majority of state delegations (which means Bush wins, given the House demographics) and the Senate elects the Veep.

by etagloh 2004-10-20 01:41PM | 0 recs

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Re: Question on Electoral College

Theoretically, if the Dems take the the Senate majority, which is confirmed before the House and Senate would vote on this issue, we could end up with Bush as president and Edwards as VP. That would make the next 4 years interesting.

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-20 06:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Question on Electoral College

If no candidate gets 270 EVs, then the race goes to the US House. If the Presidential race is that close, it is hard to imagine that Democrats could pick up the votes to control the House.

by flatblade 2004-10-20 01:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: Question on Electoral College

by Alex 2004-10-20 06:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Question on Electoral College

True, but since each state delegation casts a single vote, we wouldn't need a majority of the House, just a majority in twenty-six out of the fifty delegations. Anyone know where those stand at the moment?

by Alex 2004-10-20 06:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Question on Electoral College

Here's how the state delegations stand at the moment:

Repug: AL, AK, AZ, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MI, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, VA, WY
Dem: AR, CA, HI, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, ND, OR, RI, SD, TN, WA, WV,
Split: MN, MS, TX, WI
Independent: VT

Based on the current distribution of the House, the outlook looks awfully bleak. However, there's an outside chance we could take a majority of the states. Here are the possible switches, based on the House Outlook page:

Possible Switches to D: CO (Salazar + Thomas, Matsunaka, or Conti), CT (Ferrall or Sullivan), IL (Bean, Renner, or Cegelis), MN (Wetterling or Daly), MO (Jakobsen or Broomfield), NE (Thompson + Conneally) NV (Gallagher), NM (Romero or King), NC (Keever or Troutman), OH (Konop, Cafaro, Mitakides, AND Seemann), PA (any three of Schrader, Driscoll, Murphy, and Boles), TX (if all five targets of DeLay's criminal redistricting survive)
Possible Switches to R: TX (if Repugs knock off two or more of the "Texas Five")
Possible Switch to Split: KY (Miller + Clooney)

Unfortunately, we'd have to just about run the deck, winning a number of races where Repug incumbents are favored; that's not likely unless Kerry is winning big, in which case this scenario is irrelevant.

by Alex 2004-10-20 07:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Question on Electoral College

Flatblade is right: the only way to win those House delegatons is in a Dem landslide. If Kerry only gets 269, there's no chance we take the House.

by Silent E 2004-10-21 04:52AM | 0 recs

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VA/NC strategy...

Virginia and NC are weird states. Mainly because you have practically every single group, from far left, to far right.

Someone mentioned that Kerry has "given up" on Virginia and NC. I don't think that they have. I just think that they have a different strategy. They're focusing on grassroots information gathering and GOTV activity. Why? If they put a lot of effort into it, then just as much as they energize their base, they'll energize the Republican base. But by relying on a sort of stealth strategy, they're hoping to supress Republican vote (who think it's in the bag for their statE), while squeezing out every single Democratic vote they can.

Apparently NC has a huge GOTV campaign coming, and I assume the same for Virginia. I really do think that's their strategy for this year, and with massive turnout, it very well may be a winner.

by Karmakin 2004-10-20 01:34PM | 0 recs

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Re: VA/NC strategy...

NC voters are mobilized...and I live in the progressive Triangle area (Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill), where Dem registration is way up. Kerry/Edwards signs and bumper stickers way outnumber BC04 ones, and early voting is going on. And even though Bowles is struggling to fight off Burr's recent momentum, I think Bowles will benefit from the huge turnout for Kerry.

I think another unknown factor is how the military vote will turn out. Lots of military families living down east might be disenchanted with the turn of events and vote accordingly.

Pam's House Blend

by pamindurham 2004-10-20 05:40PM | 0 recs

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Re: VA/NC strategy...

National Guard might, but regular military will vote overwhelmingly Bush. They see Iraq as their job, even if it is run poorly, which most acknowledge. So they will just keep doing their job and will probably vote Bush...I will Guess 3 or 4 to 1. Sad to say, but true.

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-20 06:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: VA/NC strategy...

I live in Wake Co. (Cary...) Cary has always seemed to be conservative in nature, one thing I dreaded about the move there... but 8 houses in my neighborhood and hard-core Kerry... and no sign of shrub stickers.

Also, if we can take Wake Co. by 15%, we can win NC.

Sox in the World Series and Kerry winning NC... oh man, what a Fall it could be!!!!!

by tony cope 2004-10-21 07:11AM | 0 recs

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Re: VA/NC strategy...

There's lots of votes in VA for Dems, and the GOTV is real easy: just bus all the DC staffers over to N.VA! The near suburbs - Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax Cnty (plus the cities) total 1.35 m people, nearly 18.3% of the state population. WaPo reports that those areas are strongly Dem. That's the real motherlode for Dems, and they've already got the workforce in place.

Hopeful notes: N.VA is the fastest growing part of VA, By 2010 those areas will total 1.48m, or 19.1% of the whole state. By 2015 they'll be 1.59m, just over 20%!

by Silent E 2004-10-21 05:10AM | 0 recs

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Re: VA/NC strategy...

You're definitely right about this. I've been volunteering for Kerry & Moran in Northern Virginia for a couple weeks now, and I think we just might pull off something impressive. We're not making alot of big noise in the news, but the GOTV effort is enthusiastic and well organized. At all hours of the day, it seems volunteers are walking in off the street and signing up. People are very upbeat. There's some major mobilization drives coming this weekend, so maybe we can bounce a poll if one of the companies bothers with VA.

Also, there's a number of Vets for Kerry caravans heading out to the little towns in western VA over the next few days. If anyone from out there hears about one passing through your community, please go out and support them.

by hoagieboy 2004-10-21 05:31AM | 0 recs

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Re: VA/NC strategy...

Also, Al Weed is giving Virgil Goode a good fight in the 5th district, a huge expanse encompassing much of central Virginia. One of his chief volunteers told me that, if turnout is huge in Charlottesville, they think they can win, and they're working to make it happen. If Weed wins, Kerry will definitely take Virginia, and even a close loss to Goode could still provide enough votes for Kerry to beat Bush. Goode may even be on a lot of split tickets: He was a Democrat, then an Independent, now a Republican, and a lot of country Democrats still support him. They may come out to vote for him but not for Bush.

by deminva 2004-10-21 06:20AM | 0 recs

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I'm not entirely comfortable with upper midwest

The economy hurts Bush there, but the lily white social conservatives are a worry (I'm related to them). A Kerry focus in that region is essentially a gamble on Ohio, though.

by Ottnott 2004-10-20 01:42PM | 0 recs

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Chris a Question

Off topic, but even though we've got tons of good polling news today, what is up with that WP Daily Tracking Poll that has Bush up by a whopping 6% of RV including leaners as of 5PM tonight (10/20)? I'm bumming about that.

10/17 - 10/19
TIPP 45 45 Tie
Zogby 46 46 Tie
Rassmussen 48.3 46.9 B +1.4
WP LV+L 50 47 B +3
WP RV+L 51 45 B +6

Some analysis Please.

by fred 2004-10-20 02:01PM | 0 recs

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small sample size

They have only 300-something in every nightly sample. If Bush got a big number the night before last (perfectly possible given the variance and the fact that they're polling every day), then this 6% lead could easily happen. In which case, the lead will (roughly) remain tomorrow, but then we return to a more sane number the next day.

All this is completely within margin-of-error blah blah, given the tiny nightly sample.

Go to 2.004k.com and look at the TIPP and Zogby tracking polls instead! Remember, Zogby did best in 1996 and 2000.

by Winger 2004-10-20 02:24PM | 0 recs

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redundant link

of course, my link to 2.00k.com is redundant... that's where you pasted your data from

oops :)

by Winger 2004-10-20 02:25PM | 0 recs

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Winger

That's where I got the figures in my post. 2.004K.com has all five daily tracking posts side by side. Today's is over. TIPP and Zogby post early in the morning, Rassmussen at Noon, and the WP at 5 PM.

by fred 2004-10-20 02:27PM | 0 recs

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Woops

Your second post wasn't up when I posted. Sorry winger.

by fred 2004-10-20 02:29PM | 0 recs