A Tale of Six Polls

by Chris Bowers, Tue Oct 19, 2004 at 04:50:50 PM EDT

Kerry is winning Ohio:

ABC News10/14-10/17 (no trendline)
Kerry 50
Bush  47Ohio Poll10/11-17. MoE 3.5% (September results)
Kerry 48 (43)
Bush  46 (54)FoxOctober 17-18, 3.5% (9/21-22)
Bush 49 (48)
Kerry 44 (44)Rasmussen10/12-10/18, MoE 4% (10/7-10/13)
Kerry 47(47)
Bush  47 (49)Survey USA10/16-10/18, MoE 3.8% (10/5)
Kerry 49 (49)
Bush  47 (48)Zogby10/13-10/18, Internet poll (9/30-10/5)
Bush  50.6 (48.8)
Kerry 47.6 (49.1)

Only breaking 47 in Zogby and Fox (giggle), Bush is just barely, barely in the game in Nader-less Ohio. When will people who write press releases for polling firms learn that an incumbent tied at 47 is not in a dead heat but is, instead, practically dead meat?

Kerry is going to win MI, MN, NH, NJ, OR, PA and WA. There really isn't anything that can stop that now. That gives Kerry 238. Unless Gallup is right (hahahahahahahahahahaha) Kerry also has New Mexico sealed up as well. There isn't much polling out of Maine right now, but that doesn't matter. Even without Maine, as long Kerry wins New Mexico and either IA or WI (where he looks pretty good), Ohio will be enough.

The ABC tracking poll may show good news for Bush, but these days nearly every single state poll shows otherwise.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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a tale of six polls

This is great news! The only thing that really puzzles me is that JFK isn't ahead by much more.

by cocobear 2004-10-19 05:03PM | 0 recs

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google schmoogle

Google news once again lets itself down, their headline page has the Fox "news" article in big type (sigh). Kind of hard to really take that (balanced and fair and fair and balanced) one seriously.. otherwise good news... espe that NJ poll from Rutgers.. we are NOT a swing state!

2 weeks - eye on the prize.

by iain170 2004-10-19 05:05PM | 0 recs

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resource allocation

The standard line now is that whoever wins 2 of (FL, OH, PA) wins the ball game.

But the truth is: whoever wins 3 of (FL, OH, IA, WI) wins the ball game.

by globecanvas 2004-10-19 05:16PM | 0 recs

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Not quite

Kerry only needs two out of those four, as long as one of them is FL or OH. Bush needs three, and needs one of them to be FL.

by Chris Bowers 2004-10-19 05:22PM | 0 recs

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Agreed.

I guess it doesn't really boil down to a tagline. But right now it does look like those 4 states are the only ones that matter.

Lately I keep thinking, no matter what happens, there are going to be 200 million really frustrated and angry people on Nov 3.

by globecanvas 2004-10-19 06:56PM | 0 recs

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Happy days

The polls have trended towards Bush bias all year. That he can't break 50% in states the media has already dubbed red is not good. I think surprise states like TN and AK are going to negate a surprise win by Bush in WI or IA. And the more we hear the more confident we should be that Kerry wins the big three outright (FL, OH, and PA.)

by proudliberal 2004-10-19 05:22PM | 0 recs

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Re: Happy days

You mean AR, not AK. AK is the postal code for Alaska, where, as Mark Russell said, the Republicans are REAL Republicans, and so are the Democrats. Knowles will probably win the Senate seat there, but only because the nepotism factor, Murkowski the elder's unpopular governorship, and Knowles's own support for ANWR drilling.

by Alex 2004-10-20 08:04PM | 0 recs

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right you are i meant Arkansas

by proudliberal 2004-10-27 10:01PM | 0 recs

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ABC poll internals

... look even better. Bush is only leading those who name terrorism as their #1 issue. Kerry wins those who name the economy 73%-25%. He wins those who name Iraq 57%-39%. He wins those who name health care 68%-28%. And Bush isn't going to look any better on these issues in the next two weeks. Unless we quit working it, Ohio is in the bag. GOTV!

by berith 2004-10-19 05:24PM | 0 recs

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zogby internet question

what alternatives are given for the zogby internet poll for OH?

by shlenny 2004-10-19 05:31PM | 0 recs

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Re: zogby internet question

I actually emailed Alan Abramowitz, the Professor of political science from Emory who posts to the DonkeyRising web site a lot, and he responded by telling me that he never cites the Zogby internet polls because it's unknown how he constructs his samples or what metrics he actually uses -- which is interesting. So that may make a few people feel better.

by TheGaffer 2004-10-20 05:21AM | 0 recs

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GWB 43%

Remember his 43% / 46% approval ratings.. they are not rising.. that's an important stat as well as the polls.. If it stays that way.
V Good.

Plus, regarding the big 3.. the smart cookie Kerry isn't giving up on OH as Ali G did in 2000..

by iain170 2004-10-19 05:33PM | 0 recs

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TN won't get enough GOTV

Someone's diary had a post; there is no effort to turn out the vote in Shelby County (Memphis), which is 48% African American. Arkansas is a more likely surprise, with Bill Clinton sending a robo-call to everyone in the delta to get them to vote.

Don't forget Nevada, where it looks like the voter supression stories are playing very poorly for the GOP, and where ACT and SEIU/UNITE/HERE have a strong presence. Winning Nevada allows Kerry to lose Iowa and Wisconsin, and still reach 270 by picking up NH and OH as well.

by niq 2004-10-19 05:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: TN won't get enough GOTV

I don't think you have to worry too much about the upper midwest.

by shlenny 2004-10-19 05:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: TN won't get enough GOTV

I'm not super worried about the upper midwest. But there isn't really anywhere else Kerry is playing defense. You would think New Mexico would be on the list, but there haven't been any candidate visits to New Mexico except for the day or two before the third debates.

Wisconsin is Bush's best shot, followed by Iowa, followed by Minnesota. And if Bush wins Minnesota I will eat my hat.

by niq 2004-10-19 08:30PM | 0 recs

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Thanks, I needed that...

I just saw Zogby's numbers, particularly the numbers for Ohio. It's a good thing I don't have a gun in the house.

by KTinOhio 2004-10-19 05:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Thanks, I needed that...

Zogby has put Bush ahead in Ohio all year, except the last poll.

by elrod 2004-10-19 06:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Thanks, I needed that...

Yeah I feel the same way. Friggin Polls all over the place. I wish they got rid of the damn LV models that are BS and stay with RV. I feel those are mush more reliable, especially if they don't weight by Party ID.

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-19 08:06PM | 0 recs

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WI will go Kerry

With a chance to elect an African American to Congress in Milwaukee turnout among blacks will be huge. Remember, Wisconsin has same-day registration so turnout can surge at the end (remember the Republicans complaining about homeless people getting cigarettes?). Wisconsin will go Kerry.

Iowa is a bit tougher but I think Kerry will win there with all the new Democratic registrations.

by elrod 2004-10-19 06:04PM | 0 recs

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Things that make me anxious

I want Bush to lose, and every time I get optimistic I see a Fox News Poll, or ABC Poll going backwards for Kerry. I see the optimistic posting on SSP and Daily Kos and here and start to believe that Bush is a goner...then I look at Real C(onservative) Politics and see that they can find polls and info that puts W in the Driver's Seat.

Some things trouble me....all of the talk of high voter turnout, ground game, and GOTV may be an illusion. I just don't see voter turnout being much better than '00. The Dems (for the third time in their last four candidates) have put forward a man who would be a better president than presidential candidate. Three governors: Taft, Bush and Pawlenty may push the Shrub over the top in key states. I am especially concerned with Ohio and Florida. Kerry absolutely needs to win in Ohio or Florida to win the election.

Finally, the President can make news. There is real potential for something to happen in the next week to ten days to carry him to a narrow victory.

Democrats need to outwork and outthink the GOP in order to win the election.

by flatblade 2004-10-19 06:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: Things that make me anxious

I hear you.

There definitely are hypotheses about the People's Will that will be debunked in two weeks. I have the occasional moment of dread when I imagine waking up on November 3rd. Will I really want to log on to the internet? Or will it be too much? Never since 1960 has an election ment so much to the future of the world.

You and I are not the only ones who feel that way! Turnout will be huge! As big as 1992 when it was 55% For comparisons, 2000 was 50%. Why? Because the democratic base is less disciplined than the proto-nazis of the Right who vote every time. After flirting with Nader in 2000 and getting burned, the left realizes that if they continue to live in a fantasy land, they will pay a price. Minorities, who had it so good under Clinton, realize that if they "forget" to vote, then the days of Jim Crow are right around the corner.

The irony is that Bush will win more votes in 2004 than he had in 2000, but he will still lose!

Could I be wrong? I suppose in a theoretical sense, yes. But I have not yet seen any counter argument to the thesis that voter turnout = a Kerry win.

by Paul Goodman 2004-10-19 07:05PM | 0 recs

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Next Two Weeks

A prediction in the what it is worth category: Bush will make a blunder on the campaign trial by saying something much to harsh. As the race stays close or the Republicans begin to slide they will want to become increasingly aggressive - eventually I think they will step way over the line and that will hurt them. Tired Bush = campaign error.

Wesc

by Wesc 2004-10-19 06:51PM | 0 recs

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Yeah, Bush is going down in Ohio

check out the ABC poll:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=178949

by shlenny 2004-10-19 07:13PM | 0 recs

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Kerry takes Maine

The only question is whether it'll be three EVs or all four. My money would be on four -- I think Republicans in District 2 are going to sit this one out in droves.

To totally contradict myself, the only thing that might argue against this are two ballot measures -- one on a tax cap and the other on bear hunting (I'm not kidding) that may be enough of a draw to get conservatives to the polls. Will they check the Bush box though? I don't know. It's going to be a Kerry blowout in Southern Maine, that's for sure.

by rusty 2004-10-19 08:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kerry takes Maine

Bear Hunting??? People out of work, Iraq in shambles, People dying, Bin Laden at large, but as long as we can kill (or not kill) Bears, life is a-ok...

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-20 09:07AM | 0 recs

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Rimshot

Support our Constitutional right to keep and arm bears!

by Alex 2004-10-20 08:13PM | 0 recs

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Kerry's wild card

I think the fact that Kerry is still a couple of points ahead in polls that are weighted by past voter turnout is very significant.

If I am understanding the concept of "weighting" properly... is it adjusting the polls to compensate for the fact that there are more democrats than republicans, but a higher percentage of republicans show up to vote? If that is the case, and if this election does in fact end up blowing away all previous records for voter turnout... there should be a pretty fancy wild card in Kerry's hand come Nov 2.

by Slapmaxwell 2004-10-19 08:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Kerry's wild card

Good point. Are the polls weighted by 2000 demographics? The increased proportion of young voters could make a huge difference.

by KTinOhio 2004-10-19 08:47PM | 0 recs

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Interesting...

Rasmussen has both Ohio and Minnesota tied, 47-47.

Zogby gives GWB a 3-point lead in Ohio, and gives Kerry an 11-point (!) lead in Minnesota.

by KTinOhio 2004-10-19 09:14PM | 0 recs

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Bush in Ohio

I wouldn't call Ohio for Kerry unless he were up 7 points or more. It's a strange state filled with Reagan Democrats. I have no idea what that portion of the electorate is thinking, but it is the portion that gives Republicans their wins or, in 2000, their close losses.

On the other hand, it is hard to believe that Bush do as well against Kerry as he did against Gore.

Unlike Gore, Kerry is totally engaged in Ohio. Much more so than Bush. Edwards has been well-received there.

The economic issues, which were probably nearly tied, or slightly Bush in 2000 (tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts), are all running against Bush in 2004.

I like to think that beloved home state will come in for the big win, but those people do scare me.

by James Earl 2004-10-19 10:04PM | 0 recs

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Reuter/Zogby Tracking

The poll is tied for third day in a row. I like to see that.

by yitbos96bb 2004-10-20 09:11AM | 0 recs

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Re: Reuter/Zogby Tracking

I like the column of 45 and 46 figures for GWB. Sure, Kerry's figures are no better, but he isn't the incumbent.

by KTinOhio 2004-10-20 09:31AM | 0 recs