I still don't buy number 5.  I will believe it if that holds up on Nov 3.

Those internals make it real clear why the GOP wants to suppress voter turnout.

Is clearly wrong.  Maybe it's a typo or maybe their poll is completely worthless.  In any case, I'm not taking it seriously.

Now Zogby saying that Kerry polled better than Bush yesterday, that I will believe.

Yeah - I saw that number on Men and Women and assumed it was a typo.  I do like the numbers on early voters.  I suspect the main reason newly registered voters break heavily our way is that groups like ACT have signed up big numbers of Dems and Indies in the swing -states. That being the case, I bet new registrants break our way even more dramatically in swing states than nationally.  These groups are now working full-time to get them to the polls and I expect they will do a good job.

I don't see how you can conclude that.

This has been nagging me all day, and I am not sure I understand. Why would the Bush campaign take him off the trail with 16 days to go and the race this tight?

Anyone else notice this?

I'd really like to see some polling data on a demographic that isn't getting enough attention:  registered Republicans who plan to vote for Kerry, or are so disgusted with Bush that they will just stay home on Nov. 2.  Perhaps the polling firms could design a survey that samples this segment of the electorate?   My gut instinct tells me that this might be the Mother of All Internals....

I am embarrassed but my home paper the Chicago Tribune endorsed Bush.  Not that this should surprise too much (nor does it worry me since Kerry will win Illinois...If he doesn't, then I will assume Kerry already lost when they read that announcement or Hell froze over), since the Tribune Company is made up of a bunch of GOP fasicists who support almost every right winger out there.  I swear if they endorse Keyes over Obama, I may cancel my subscription.  I don't care if they are wingnuts, you don't endorse a carpetbagger over a local pol, unless the local pol is a total crook or scumbag, both of which we know Obama is not.  There entire editorial board (except maybe Page) needs to be fired and replaced with some people who aren't just promoting the corporate agenda.  No wonder all the White Sox fans hate the tribune.  

It's encouraging for Dems, but could also backfire by giving lazy Dem voters a reason to stay home, and could induce Repug voters to vote in order to catch up.

One problem with early voting is the inevitable exit polls that will hound all the early voters and the spin that two sides will put on them.  Watch for the networks to start reporting these exit results.  This is probably a good reason for both sides to get their guys to the early polls early so they could try to hype the results.

It is relatively obvious why Bush is being pulled from the trail this close to the election. His advisers don't want him to ruin the advantage of the incumbency by stooping to the level of the challenger. Expect him to be in the White House and to play the "strong leader/commander in chief" role for a while.