Kerry pulls ahead of Bush (barely), updated 2004 polling graph

by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 05:16:00 AM EDT

Now that there are more than one tracking poll out there, I've begun adding them (ABC & Zogby) into the cumulative polling graph, that accounts for all Bush vs Kerry polls of 2004 (no breakdowns by month in this one), from January through the present.

click on image to enlarge:

As you can see, Kerry has pulled up slightly ahead of Bush, thanks to Zogby showing Kerry leading 47-44 over Bush (btw, the Zogby graphic to the left clicks through to subscribe to Zogby's tracking polls).

As for making sense of the graph, it's not got much of any pattern that's showing right now. I take the highwater mark of Bush (poll 135) and lowwater mark of Kerry (poll 137) as the beginning of trendlines, which shows their coming to a head, with a crossover likely over the next couple of polls-- which might be what we are beginning to see with Kerry's movement.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

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Polls: Spread vs. 50% Rule

Analyzing poll data, including the disparities between the LV models in context of RV data, is morphing into the fine art of tarot card reading.

Remember the incumbent 50% rule: average all the polls and Bush is still way under 50% (of both RVs and LVs). If this trend continues as we get closer to election day, he does not have a chance at winning.

Check out these two interesting analyses for the details:

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694

by drplaud 2004-10-11 07:02AM | 0 recs

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Kerry pulls ahead

Kerry could be way ahead if someone in his campaign would take charge of his foot in the mouth disease....once again a stupid statement gives the right ammunition to blast him...what the hell does Kerry mean by "reducing terrorism to a nuisance, like prostitution," etc. Now we'll have another convoluted explanation of what he really meant. Bush is already blasting him for that saying he just doesn't under the war on terrorism at all, and there are already GOP TV ads saying the same....?????????

by hambro 2004-10-11 08:33AM | 0 recs

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Graph

At the risk of appearing to worry too much, it seems to me that there is a slight tail in recent polls suggesting a decline for Kerry and a rise for Bush. This would fit with recent Rasmussen and WaPo polls. Clearly there's a long way until 11/2, but there are hints to me that Bush is staging a bit of a comeback. T.J.

by Pempel 2004-10-11 09:54AM | 0 recs

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DOWNLOAD Going Upriver

You can download the full movie here:
http://apnu.danielstrading.com/political/JohnKerryMovie-GoingUpRiver.mov

Website:
http://apnu.danielstrading.com/political/

Then, go and buy the DVD.

Also, some people might want to host the movie on their sites, to help lower the hits at this one.

by nkp 2004-10-11 10:16AM | 0 recs

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Tracking poll v. electoral college trackers

I'm struck by the similarity between your polling graph (based on national tracking polls) and my new graph of Electoral College tracking sites, part of my latest (10/11) survey of 56 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites.

Executive summary: Although Bush still leads according to a majority of sites, Kerry has made substantial headway in re-gaining ground he lost to Bush in the last month, reducing a 50 point gap to a 15 - 18 point Bush advantage. Currently Bush has 262 to 268 electoral votes, while Kerry has 247 to 250.

by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-10-12 12:42AM | 0 recs