Al Jazeera's Fault Lines presenter Avi Lewis hosts a debate about race & the US recession with Jesse Jackson of the Rainbow Coalition; Rosa Clemente, an activist and former Green Party Vice Presidential candidate; Linda Chávez, director of the conservative Center for Equal Opportunity and the Reverend Greylan Hagler of the United Church of Christ.

If we are living through a Great Recession, for people of color it is a quiet depression. Among whites with a college degree, the unemployment rate as of September 2009 is 4.0 percent. For blacks with a college degree, the unemployment rate is nearly twice as high at 7.2 percent. Hispanics fare slightly better. The unemployment rate for Hispanics with a college degree 5.6 percent.

The unemployment rate is higher among men than among women. For black men, 25 and over and at all education levels, the unemployment rate is 16.1 percent while for black women, 25 and over and at all education levels, the unemployment rate is 11.0 percent. For black men and women ages 15 to 24 without a high school degree the unemployment rate is a staggering 42.7 percent. The New York Times has an interactive feature where you can find the unemployment rate by various demographics.

Below the fold is a breakout of unemployment data (U3) by demographic groups.

President Obama calls to our attention the men and women in uniform who are away from home sacrificing time with family to protect our safety and freedom. He also talks about the progress of health care reform, the Recovery Act, and job creation to ensure that next Thanksgiving will be a brighter day.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Les femmes fatales des soirées du thé will be the marquee entertainment, if that's the word for it, at the upcoming National Tea Party Convention scheduled for early February at the Opryland Hotel in Nashville, Tennessee. According to the sponsors, the convention is aimed at bringing the Tea Party Movement leaders together from around the nation for the purpose of networking and supporting the movements' multiple organizations principle goals. The event will feature a keynote speech by Sarah Palin and a breakfast tea address by Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota.

A number of right wing groups are involved in organizing the event- National Taxpayers Union, American Majority, Smart Girl Politics, and SurgeUSA but the principal organizer is a group calling itself Tea Party Nation, which self-describes as "a user-driven group of like-minded people who desire our God given Individual Freedoms which were written out by the Founding Fathers" that believes in "Limited Government, Free Speech, the 2nd Amendment, our Military, Secure Borders and our Country!"

Beyond the Bachmann and Palin addresses, the National Tea Party convention will offer workshops and a number of panels led by the conservative illuminati. The workshops include: Conservative Activism; Using Social Media; How to get Youth involved in Conservative Activism. The panels will cover topics such as "How to Defeat Liberalism" and "Where the Tea Party Movement Goes From Here." If nothing else, I'm sure that you will be pick up all the Palin/Bachmann 2012 bumper stickers you'll ever want.

This is no media friendly crowd either. The Nashville Post reports that the press will only be allowed in a designated pen, excuse me, section of the lobby of the convention and will not be allowed inside the convention. Furthermore, the media will not be allowed inside for the Sarah Palin keynote address. Not that a media presence is really required, I'm sure that she'll rehash what she said earlier this year at her coming out party in Hong Kong also held behind close doors.

You can call me a common-sense conservative. My approach to the issues facing my country and the world, issues that we'll discuss today, are rooted in this common-sense conservatism... Common sense conservatism deals with the reality of the world as it is. Complicated and beautiful, tragic and hopeful, we believe in the rights and the responsibilities and the inherent dignity of the individual.

We don't believe that human nature is perfectible; we're suspicious of government efforts to fix problems because often what it's trying to fix is human nature, and that is impossible. It is what it is. But that doesn't mean that we're resigned to, well, any negative destiny. Not at all. I believe in striving for the ideal, but in realistic confines of human nature...

The opposite of a common-sense conservative is a liberalism that holds that there is no human problem that government can't fix if only the right people are put in charge. Unfortunately, history and common sense are not on its side. We don't trust utopian promises; we deal with human nature as it is.

If she sounds a failed broken record, that's because, that is what she represents - the politics of failure. The three day event will set you back $549 plus $9.95 fee not to mention the cost of accommodation. By comparison, the cost for attending Netroots Nation 2010 is $250. Must be an elitist discount or perhaps the Tea Party Nation is running some sort of populist premium.

Would it be surprising, if this trend continues, to see a poll that shows Palin leading Obama in 2012 (Would that jolt Obama even further to the right)? Its not as far off as you'd imagine.

Via Rasmussen, some 2012 numbers:

2012 President
44% Romney, 44% Obama
45% Obama, 41% Huckabee
46% Obama 43% Palin

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 48 / 51
Mitt Romney: 49 / 38
Mike Huckabee: 58 / 30
Sarah Palin: 46 / 49

Its kinda goofy that Huckabee would have that high a favorable and trail Obama by slightly more than the other two. Opinion Dynamics has the Palin favorable numbers higher than the others:

Sarah Palin   47%
Mike Huckabee  45%
Newt Gingrich  38%
Mitt Romney   38%

The Gingrich numbers, if he does get in, will likely be worse than any of the others running. Which brings us to the Iowa caucus-goers poll of favorables/unfavorables.

First, I have to wonder if, given that Obama will not be challenged, a lot (many or some?) of those 2008 caucus-goers that attended the Democratic caucus, 230K or so, might caucus with Republicans in 2012?  It certainly wouldn't be surprising to see the Republican '80's turnout records shattered in '12.

There are three groups in the Iowa poll that cluster in the favorable ratings of "not sure" for the answer (among all Iowans):

Palin- 8%

Gingrich- 22%
Huckabee- 24%
Romney- 28%

Pataki- 70%
Jindal- 74%
Pawlenty- 73%

Palin is in a world of her own, but I continue to believe she will flirt with running, but not actually run in the end.

It looks to me like Huckabee is going to be strongly favored to win Iowa. His overall favorable rating is 54% positive, while Gingrich (42%) and Romney (40%) trail. Among only Republicans/Moderates (those who would attend a GOP caucus) the favorables:

Huckabee- 70/50
Palin- 60/23
Romney- 58/37

Unless I'm totally wrong and Palin does run (they would split the social conservative base in half), the polling shows Huckabee with nearly a lock on the Iowa caucus. I thought ( a few months ago) that Gingrich might have an opening in Iowa, but not with these kind of numbers. What seems more likely at this point is that a longshot might come up (maybe not even on the radar yet being still 25 months away, and be the story with a close 2nd/3rd to Huckabee. My guess is Gary Johnson. I could see a lot of Ron Paul Libertarian Republicans backing him, and a lot of Libertarian Democrats showing up to caucus for him, that boost his numbers (if his campaign does the targeting/organizing).

On Iowa, I just finished David Plouffe's book, and its probably (their voter-targeting in Iowa) my favorite part of the book. I've got a couple of in-depth drafts up for posts on it that I'll do in the next few days.

Chris Cillizza has the numbers:

In the first week of November, the opposition spent $12 million to just $2.5 million for the those who support the package. That margin narrowed to a $600,000 edge for the opposition in the second week and widened again to a $4.5 million advantage in the third week.

Overall, supporters of healthcare reform have spent nearly as much money as have those opposed to the measure -- $73.5 million to $75 million. But coming down the stretch, supporters are running clearly behind the opposition, investing $13.6 million less so far during the month of November.

Money isn't everything, and credit or responsibility for the success or failure of healthcare reform will likely lie at the White House rather than on outside groups. That said, those hoping to see a near universal system of healthcare enacted soon might be well served to figure out a way to come closer to parity on the airwaves so that public sentiment does not shift to the point that reform becomes less attainable on a political level.

Amazing batch of diaries so far this week.  Enjoy.  

• Inoljt parses South Dakota and the Native American Vote.
• The War on Social Insurance (Soc Sec/Medicare): the Nexus. (Bruce Webb)
• When it comes to the economy, if we can pretend we will be okay, then we will be okay, writes Ravi Verman in the wonkish An amateur hitchhikers guide to the past.
• .25% on each trade can take a giant step for jobs and justice. (John Russonello)
• The Opportunity Agenda details High-Stakes of Stupak-Pitts Amendment for Women of Color.
• Jlwolff: Faced with threats to accessibility in CA, students are Taking a Stand for Public Education.
• History may be repeating itself writes johnny venom in Glenn Beck's dark shadow.
• The Media Consortium's Weekly Audit: Unemployment Fueling Political Storm.

A report out this week finds that the proportion of US homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23 percent nationwide. Some 10.7 million households households had negative equity in their homes as of the end of the third quarter of 2009. Homeowners in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California are more likely to be deeply under water, according to the analysis. In Nevada, for example, nearly 30 percent of borrowers owe 50 percent or more on their mortgage than their home is worth. In Las Vegas, a home purchased for $530,000 in 2004 is now worth just $300,000.

To put this in context, consider this: the Global Property Guide's quarterly house price report was published today offering some sobering statistics on global real-estate prices in the third quarter. Worse off is Latvia, where homes prices have collapsed this year alone by 59.7 percent. Other hard hit areas include the United Arab Emirates (down -48.1% YTD), Bulgaria (-28.7%), Iceland (-21.2%), Russia (-19.5%) and Slovakia (-15.3%).

Here are the steepest declines in the US Housing Market y/y for 2009:

Metro Area	Pct Decline
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL	-40.0%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV	-34.5%
Rvierside-San Bernardino, CA	-26.0%
Orlando, FL	-26.0%
Melbourne-Titusville, FL	-24.6%
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL	-24.6%
Reno-Sparks, NV	-24.1%
Ocala, FL	-24.0%
Phoenix-Scottsdale, AZ	-22.9%
Sarasota-Brandenton, FL	-22.0%
Source: National Association of Realtors

The Obama Administration announced late today that it will not sign an international convention banning landmines but would send observers to a review conference on the treaty in Cartagena, Colombia. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said Tuesday that the Administration recently completed a review and had decided not to change the Bush-era policy.

"We decided that our land mine policy remains in effect," he said. "As a global provider of security, we have an interest in the discussions there," Kelly said. "But we will be there as an observer, obviously, because we haven't signed the convention, nor do we plan to sign the convention."

While the United States generally abides by the provisions of the treaty - the US has not used antipersonnel mines since the 1991 Gulf War, has not exported any since 1992 and has not produced them since 1997 - but rather under a 2004 Bush directive reserves the right to use and develop non-persistent (self-destructing/self-deactivating) landmines primarily for use on the Korean peninsula. Additionally, the United States stockpiles some 10 million antipersonnel mines and retains the option to use them.

"This is a default of U.S. leadership and a detour from the clear path of history," Vermont Senator Pat Leahy said in a statement. "The United States is the most powerful nation on earth. We don't need these weapons and most of our allies have long ago abandoned them. It is a lost opportunity for the United States to show leadership instead of joining with China and Russia and impeding progress. The United States took some of the earliest and most effective steps to restrict the use of landmines. We should be leading this effort, not sitting on the sidelines."

More than 150 countries have agreed to the Mine Ban Treaty's provisions to end the production, use, stockpiling and trade in mines. Apart from the United States, other holdouts include: China, India, Pakistan, Myanmar and Russia. The meeting in Cartagena next week is to assess compliance with the now ten year old ban.

According to the Nobel Prize-winning International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), landmines caused at least 5,197 casualties last year, a third of them children. A United Nations report on the impact of armed conflict on children, by Graça Machel, the UN Secretary-General's Expert on the Impact of Armed Conflict on Children called landmines "an insidious and persistent danger" to children. An estimated 110 million land-mines of various types remain hidden and unexploded. Once laid, a mine may remain active for up to 50 years.

Three countries - Afghanistan, Angola and Cambodia - account for 85 percent of the world's landmine casualties. Angola alone has an estimated 10 million landmines and an amputee population of 70,000, of whom 8,000 are children. Since May 1995 children have made up about half the victims of the 50,000-100,000 anti-personnel mines laid in Rwanda. In Cambodia, an average of 20 percent of children injured by mines and unexploded ordnance die from their injuries. In Afghanistan, there are at least seven million landmines. Landmines remain a problem in at least 68 countries. The cost to remove all 110 million active mines is estimated at approximately $33 billion. Experts believe that under current conditions it would take more than 1,100 years to clear the entire world of mines—provided that no additional mines are planted.

The decision by the Administration is bitterly disappointing.